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Zhowan daghigh; Mostafa baghbanyan; Abbas Memarnejad
Abstract
This study examines the threshold effects of the Human Development Index (HDI) and sustainable economic growth on the relationship between financial development and oil revenues in developing oil-exporting countries. Considering the central role of oil revenues in the economic structure of these countries ...
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This study examines the threshold effects of the Human Development Index (HDI) and sustainable economic growth on the relationship between financial development and oil revenues in developing oil-exporting countries. Considering the central role of oil revenues in the economic structure of these countries and the importance of financial development in the optimal allocation of resources, analyzing this nonlinear relationship is of particular significance. To this end, panel data for selected oil-exporting countries in the Middle East, including Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, during the period 1995–2024 were used. Financial development is considered as the dependent variable, while oil revenues, economic growth, capital stock, trade openness, the Human Development Index, and the sustainable economic growth index are treated as explanatory variables. To identify nonlinear behaviors and threshold effects, the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model was employed. Prior to model estimation, the Levin–Lin–Chu panel unit root tests indicated stationarity of all variables at levels, and the Kao panel cointegration test confirmed the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Moreover, the linearity test results rejected the linearity hypothesis, emphasizing the necessity of using the nonlinear PSTR model. The estimation results indicate that when the Human Development Index exceeds the estimated threshold, the effects of oil revenues, economic growth, capital stock, and trade openness on financial development are significantly strengthened.
mina saber; reza zeinalzadeh; Seyd Abdolmajid Jalaee Esfanadadi; mohsen Zayanderoody
Abstract
The impacts of shocks generated by macroeconomic growth scenarios (2 percent, 5 percent, and 10%) on the overall welfare index in Iran were explored in this study. The essential data were gathered from the social accounting matrix of 2011, the Central Bank, and the data-output table of 2016, and the ...
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The impacts of shocks generated by macroeconomic growth scenarios (2 percent, 5 percent, and 10%) on the overall welfare index in Iran were explored in this study. The essential data were gathered from the social accounting matrix of 2011, the Central Bank, and the data-output table of 2016, and the new recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (RDCGE) model was employed for data analysis.The findings revealed that real GDP shocks of up to 2.66 percent result in an increase in Iran's social welfare index. Because growing real GDP through boosting economic capacity raises individual income in society and creates the circumstances for household well-being to improve. Furthermore, productivity shocks of total inputs of production of up to 1.55 percent raise the social welfare index. Because improving total factor productivity has resulted in a rise in output, which has a direct influence on household consumption owing to greater income and promotes economic well-being. Furthermore, the short-term reaction of the social welfare index to oil income shocks is a maximum of 0.81 percent. Because, on the one hand, more oil revenues contribute to increased economic growth, but on the other hand, they lead to the establishment of the Dutch illness. Finally, the data revealed that among the factors analysed, shock due to real GDP growth, shock due to total productivity growth, and shock due to oil revenue increase had the greatest influence on total wellfare.
Mohammad Hassan Kheiravar; Davood Danesh Jafari; Hamid Nazeman; Javid Bahrami
Abstract
In significant part of oil-exporting countries, oil revenues are considered as one of the main drivers of the economy. However, these revenues are volatile, uncertain and subject to shocks due to exogenous nature and inherent volatility of oil prices as well as the reality of the hydrocarbon resources’ ...
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In significant part of oil-exporting countries, oil revenues are considered as one of the main drivers of the economy. However, these revenues are volatile, uncertain and subject to shocks due to exogenous nature and inherent volatility of oil prices as well as the reality of the hydrocarbon resources’ depletion. On the other hand, oil revenues are independent of the domestic economy as they are mainly derived from exports. This indicate that a significant part of the economy in these countries is exposed to potential instability, depending on the way and quality of these revenues’ management. This article examines the effect of oil revenue shocks on volatility of five macroeconomic variables, i.e. economic growth rate, inflation rate, real exchange rate, liquidity and government size, using panel var from selected oil-exporting countries over the period 2000-2019. The results show that oil instability shocks led to increase in instability of government size, liquidity and exchange rate. In addition, it first increase instability of inflation rate and economic growth rate but subsequently decrease these tow variables’ instability.
Mohammad Sayadi; mousa khoshkalam
Abstract
The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between oil revenue, effective government capital spending and non-oil GDP in Iran in the 1990: Q1 to 2017: Q1 in the context of a BVAR model with main feature such as public investment inefficiencies in development objectives. In this ...
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The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between oil revenue, effective government capital spending and non-oil GDP in Iran in the 1990: Q1 to 2017: Q1 in the context of a BVAR model with main feature such as public investment inefficiencies in development objectives. In this regard a Bayesian Vector Auto Regressive (BVAR) Model was applied and Normal- Wishart in Prior Density Function selected by RMSE and Theil indices and impulse functions (IRF) in response to stochastic shocks was analyzed. Results from IRFs revealed oil revenue and non-oil GDP shocks tend to government capital spending slightly increase. Base as usual trends, public spending as foundation of development plan has not significant situation. The findings show that, with positive shocks in effective government spending, GDP without oil under all three scenarios increases, while the largest increase in non-oil GDP under the optimistic scenario corresponding to the lowest level of investment inefficiency. Results from IRFs revealed because of the structure of the economy that was largely unproductive and Dutch Disease phenomenon, the oil revenue increment has inverse effect on the growth of non-oil producing sector, and so on oil revenues not able to play an incentive and running role to non-oil GDP growth and overall national production.
