Reza Ghaderi Moghaddam; Bijan Baseri; Nemat Falihi; Gholamreza Abbasi
Abstract
Energy plays a vital role in production and consumption of variouse activities. In Iran energy affect economic growth as an important input along with other production inputs and increase value added of industrial activities and services in nationalwide. In this study, we will test the asymmetric analysis ...
Read More
Energy plays a vital role in production and consumption of variouse activities. In Iran energy affect economic growth as an important input along with other production inputs and increase value added of industrial activities and services in nationalwide. In this study, we will test the asymmetric analysis of the effect of energy consumption on economic growth with emphasis on financial development using the ARDL method. Based on a nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between energy consumption, financial development and economic growth, we found the nonlinear relationship of variables examine the period 1981-2020. So two different indicators were used for the examination of financial development variable (domestic credit to private sector to GDP and private sector liquidity to GDP).The results show an asymmetries relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and financial development.In the long run and short run, the positive shock of energy consumption and financial development has slowed down economic growth. Positive energy consumption shockleads to producers' efforts to reduce energy consumption and reduce economic growth in the short run. Also, any positive shock to financial development reduces economic growth in Iran. This reduces consumption and access to finance, and ultimately reduces investment activities.
ali changi changi; hadi ghaffari
Abstract
ABSTRACT:one of the indicators that is currently considered in determining the level of development of a country is the amount of electricity consumption and its applications.Providing the needs of the industrial sector for energy,especially electricity, is undeniable and very important and is very effective ...
Read More
ABSTRACT:one of the indicators that is currently considered in determining the level of development of a country is the amount of electricity consumption and its applications.Providing the needs of the industrial sector for energy,especially electricity, is undeniable and very important and is very effective in the process of growth, development and economic stability.In this study,using time series data and aggregate techniques in econometrics, especially dynamic auto regressive distributed lag models (ARDL) and error correction mechanism (ECM), long-term and short-term relationships of electricity demand model of the industrial sector are estimated. Based on the obtained results,The price elasticity of demand in the industrial sector is equal to 0.453 and it indicates that with a one percent increase in the price of electricity,the amount of demand decreases by 0.453 percent.Therefore, electricity is a low-elastic commodity, This means that the industrial sector is dependent on electricity and other energies cannot be a suitable alternative to it.The results show that all coefficients are significant at the levels of 5 and 10 percent. Also, the results show that the demand for electricity has an important role in the production of the industrial sector and ultimately the country's GDP, so that an increase of 1 unit (ten thousand kilowatt hours) in electricity consumption in the industrial sector can increase GDP by about 23,660 dollars.Keywords: Electricity Demand of Industrial Sector, Price of Energy Carriers, ARDL.
International Commerce
Mohammad Mahdi Barghi Oskooee; Alireza Kazerooni; Behzad Salmani; Saber Khodaverdizadeh
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 61-78
Abstract
The trade balance is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, and the macroeconomic strategic constraints for developing countries. The main target of this paper is study the effect of savings rate on the trade balance. According to the article target we used time series data of Iranian macroeconomic ...
Read More
The trade balance is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, and the macroeconomic strategic constraints for developing countries. The main target of this paper is study the effect of savings rate on the trade balance. According to the article target we used time series data of Iranian macroeconomic variables during 1960-2015 with application of fuzzy regression and auto regressive distributed lag approaches. The results of fuzzy regression approach show that savings rate and GDP per capita have a positive effect on the trade balance in the short term and long term. In the other hand the real effective exchange rate and degree of trade openness have a negative effect on the trade balance in long term. Also the results of auto regressive distributed lag approach show that savings rate, trade openness and GDP per capita have a positive effect on the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate has a negative effect on the trade balance. The other results are: error correction coefficient shows that 93 present of unbalanced short term adjusted to achieving long term balance. According to the results of research to reduce the trade deficit, an increase in gross domestic savings can be one of the important policy recommendations.
Zahra Arabi; Abootaleb Kazemi
Volume 5, Issue 17 , December 2014, , Pages 124-109
Abstract
According to the new growth theories, human capital is considered as one of the main variables affecting growth and development. Therefore, with providing and creation of appropriate context for it, we will see an increase in the production and development of GDP. Human development index can have a significant ...
Read More
According to the new growth theories, human capital is considered as one of the main variables affecting growth and development. Therefore, with providing and creation of appropriate context for it, we will see an increase in the production and development of GDP. Human development index can have a significant contribution to economic development with considering the fundamental factors such as health, education and labor income that have been mentioned as parts of growth software in some text. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of human development index on Iranian GDP over the period of 1971-2011. This study aims to answer the question that what is the equilibrium relationship (long run and short run) within these variables. To do so, firstly the effects of human development index on the GDP were tested by using ARDL. Then, to determine the exact effects, the impact of components of human development index on GDP were tested. The results showed that in the short-run human development effect on GDP was small and insignificant. But, this effect is stronger in the long run. The second model results showed that the impact of each component of human development in the long run is stronger in comparison to the short run.
Ali Changi Ashtiani
Volume 2, Issue 7 , September 2012, , Pages 101-91
Abstract
The history of electricity industry dates back to one hundred years ago. In Iran, the electricity industry is transiting from the typical monopoly to the competitive markets and a new paradigm is the producers compete with each other to sell the energy. In the present research, the long-term and short-term ...
Read More
The history of electricity industry dates back to one hundred years ago. In Iran, the electricity industry is transiting from the typical monopoly to the competitive markets and a new paradigm is the producers compete with each other to sell the energy. In the present research, the long-term and short-term models of electrical energy in Iran has been estimated using time-series data and correlation techniques in econometrics specifically the dynamic self-explanatory models with auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM). After estimating the electricity demand function, the prediction of the whole country electricity demand was carried out. The results confirmed the inelasticity of electricity demand in proportion to the electricity price indicated by other studies in Iran and other countries. According to the Power Ministry statistics, the aggregate electricity demand has been 176230 million kw/h in 2009 which after implementing the targeting subsidies plan in the first year, this number has been decreased to 170067 million kw/h with a 3.5 % decline in the electricity demand. Finally, the aggregate electricity demand is expected to increase to 240020 million kw/h by the year 2025.
Nasim Jaberi Khosroshahi; Mohammad Reza Mohamadvand Nahidi; Davood Noroozi
Volume 2, Issue 6 , May 2012, , Pages 208-173
Abstract
Income distribution is one of the policymakers concerns. So it is important to investigate its determinants. Considering that financial development is one of the effective factors on income distribution, we decide to investigate its effect on income distribution during 1973-2008 using Autoregressive ...
Read More
Income distribution is one of the policymakers concerns. So it is important to investigate its determinants. Considering that financial development is one of the effective factors on income distribution, we decide to investigate its effect on income distribution during 1973-2008 using Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL). Results show that the relationship between financial development and Gini coefficient is positive and reducing so support the Green-Jovanovic (1990) hypothesis. The relationship between GDP per capita and Gini coefficient is positive and reducing too. Also human capital has negative and significant impact and inflation has positive and significant impact on Gini coefficient. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ structural stability tests show that the estimated coefficients are stable over the studying period.
Jahangir Biabani; Taghva Khosravi
Volume 2, Issue 5 , March 2012, , Pages 182-131
Abstract
In this study, the existence or non-existence of housing price bubble in Tehran is investigated by both econometric and graphical approaches during the period of 1992:Q2 to 2009:Q1. For this purpose, Poterba's model is combined with Tobin's Q theory, which provides us with an academic tool for analyzing ...
Read More
In this study, the existence or non-existence of housing price bubble in Tehran is investigated by both econometric and graphical approaches during the period of 1992:Q2 to 2009:Q1. For this purpose, Poterba's model is combined with Tobin's Q theory, which provides us with an academic tool for analyzing the effects of supply and demand shocks on house price and also deviations from fundamental value of house price in the LR and SR. In econometric approach, by using the defined variables in Poterba's model as the effective factors on housing demand and Tobin's Q ratio as an effective criterion for housing supply, fundamental value of house price is estimated by Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the residuals of ARDL model is then concerned as the "bubble component". Next, in graphical approach, by using second method of detecting price bubble namely deviation from LR average of some ratios like P/CC, P/R, P/Y and P/DM, their graphs are illustrated. The existence of two price bubbles in Tehran housing market in 1996-97 and 2007-08 is verified mainly in both methods. As well, findings show that all inflation, Tobin's Q ratio, real rent, number of households and housing stock are the determining elements of the fundamental value of house price in Tehran and these variables tend to long run equilibrium at a confidence level more than 95%.
ARDL
Mahdi Fadaee; Somayeh Nayeri
Volume 1, Issue 1 , January 2012, , Pages 159-133
Abstract
In economic growth and development analysis, cultural change has a special situation. Cultural indicators can affect on production factors and economic growth endogenously and exogenously. Nowadays, in economic literature capital divided to: Physical, Human, Cultural, Social and Natural capital. In this ...
Read More
In economic growth and development analysis, cultural change has a special situation. Cultural indicators can affect on production factors and economic growth endogenously and exogenously. Nowadays, in economic literature capital divided to: Physical, Human, Cultural, Social and Natural capital. In this research, first, we survey cultural indicators, and then point to production factors especially on capital and theatrically factors and GDP. In this research we used Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze short and long run relations between variables and then test the stability of model by CUSUM and CUSUMQ. Error Correction model (ECM) model is used to show how the short run shocks justify in next periods. Findings show that the model was stable and cultural indicators during 1975-2005 had significant and positive effect on economic growth of Iran.
