Economic Growth
ramiar refaei; morteza sameti; sara ghobadi
Abstract
The history of Iran's economy after the revolution has been in recession for some years and, with the 70s, this trend has deepened, and with the 1990s it seems that the real GDP trend is making serious changes. In this paper, the Markov chain Monte Carlo and Byesian approach are used to simulate the ...
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The history of Iran's economy after the revolution has been in recession for some years and, with the 70s, this trend has deepened, and with the 1990s it seems that the real GDP trend is making serious changes. In this paper, the Markov chain Monte Carlo and Byesian approach are used to simulate the effects of factors affecting the economic recession in Iran during the years 1979- 2016. The results show that the Bayesian approach confirm the results of the model estimation using the Monte Carlo Markov chain approach, and at a reliable level, 97.5% of the coefficients of the variables are statistically significant and reliable. so, the most influential variables were estimated on the economic recession in Iran, are exchange rate changes, crude oil prices, and real GDP. The results also show that the matrix of Bayes factors for all pairings of models is reliable. The later probabilities of regimes and the likelihood ratio indicate that the change points in the sixth model are different with the rest of the models, so the regime change is happening in the sixth model.
Economic Growth
Ahmad Jafari Samimi; elham alizadeh malafeh
Volume 6, Issue 22 , January 2016, , Pages 70-57
Abstract
Expansion of energy consumption and trend of rising emissions of pollutants resulting from the combustion of energy carriers in the world has caused environmental crises which be recognized as one of the most important challenges which governments in the twenty-first century are facing. That is why governments ...
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Expansion of energy consumption and trend of rising emissions of pollutants resulting from the combustion of energy carriers in the world has caused environmental crises which be recognized as one of the most important challenges which governments in the twenty-first century are facing. That is why governments try to take various policies and programs in order to overcome on environmental problems such as air pollution. One of the most common types of policies that cause minimum inefficiency in the economy is obtaining the green taxes which is applied on the basis of cost. Accordingly, in this study, the effects of increase of green taxes on economic growth, based on the design of Computable General Equilibrium model for Iran and implementation of Social Accounting Matrix in 2001 in the form of eight scenarios were examined.
The increasing rates of taxes from one to forty percent have been done in eight scenarios. The obtained results show that the increasing rate of green taxes as an indirect one increases the economic growth in all scenarios. also the positive effect of lower pollution leads in positive economic growth in all scenarios, too.
