s
Maryam Heidarian; Amene Shahidi
Abstract
The present study evaluates the mediating and interactive role of governance in the debt-economic growth relationship in a selection of countries in the world. For this purpose, the selected countries are divided into four groups: 1- Countries with high debt and high governance; 2- Countries with low ...
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The present study evaluates the mediating and interactive role of governance in the debt-economic growth relationship in a selection of countries in the world. For this purpose, the selected countries are divided into four groups: 1- Countries with high debt and high governance; 2- Countries with low debt and high governance; 3- Countries with low debt and low governance and 4- Countries with high debt and low governance are categorized and the models considered are estimated with panel autoregressive distributed lag regression model, during the period 2002-2023. The results of the model estimation related to the effect of debt (along with variables such as investment, degree of trade play, labor force participation rate, inflation rate) on economic growth indicate that in the short term in all four groups of countries, debt has caused a decrease in economic growth, but in the long term, it has only increased economic growth in countries with high governance. Also, when the effect of good governance along with government debt has been interactively fitted on economic growth, it has reduced the negative effect of debt or increased its long-term positive effect in all groups of countries. Based on the research findings, it can be argued that governance is a variable affecting the relationship between debt and growth; In other words. the governance context and structure in countries can play an important role in the effective management of government debt and the further growth of productive investment and, consequently, economic growth.
Economic Growth
Mohammad Sharif Karimi; Marayam Haidarian; Masomeh Dorbash
Abstract
Establishing security is one of the important pillars of economic growth and the most important economic impact of security in the phenomenon of investment and economic growth is observed. The establishment of security in society is influenced by several factors, among which the institutions in the society ...
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Establishing security is one of the important pillars of economic growth and the most important economic impact of security in the phenomenon of investment and economic growth is observed. The establishment of security in society is influenced by several factors, among which the institutions in the society and government are the most important of these factors. In both internal and external conflicts, each of them, in turn, will undermine security and, as a result, will undermine the economic growth of a country. Therefore, in this research, we tried to study the effect of internal and external conflicts on economic growth in Middle East countries during the period 1996-2018. By examining the nature and effect of conflicts on economic growth, first, the effect of external conflict on internal conflict in the form of a panel probe model, then in two separate models of the impact of internal and external disputes on the quality of institutions and economic integration indexes are examined. Finally, in a generalized method of moments system the simultaneous influence of internal and external conflicts, quality of institutions indicators and economic integration on economic growth have been investigated. The results of the model estimation show the positive effects of external conflicts on the internal conflicts and then the negative effects of internal and external conflicts on the quality of institutions and economic integration. In the final model, the increase in domestic and foreign conflicts has led to a decline in Middle East economic growth. Of course, the negative effects of foreign conflicts have been more than internal conflicts in the economic growth model.
s
Azad Khanzadi; maryam heidarian
Abstract
In macroeconomics, the Okun's Law and Verdoorn's Law are used as methods for studying the relationship between economic growth and unemployment and employment. The necessity of studying these two laws together, in a threshold econometric model and considering to regional and spatial conditions of variables, ...
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In macroeconomics, the Okun's Law and Verdoorn's Law are used as methods for studying the relationship between economic growth and unemployment and employment. The necessity of studying these two laws together, in a threshold econometric model and considering to regional and spatial conditions of variables, can have more effective results in labor market policies. Therefore, in this study, due to the importance of employment and unemployment issue in Iran, have been investigated economic growth thresholds in the Okun's and Verdoorn's Law, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression and considering to spatial and non-spatial dimensions of variables. The results of model estimation for 30 Iranian provinces of during the period of 2005-2017 show that unemployment response to changes in production growth was higher than employment, this is true not only in non-spatial state, but also in spatial state and calculation of proximity matrix in economic growth. In addition, the results in spatial state than non-spatial state with stronger and faster changes, which is evidence of regional labor markets impact and macroeconomic situation and unbalanced development in each region, which has led to overflow in other areas. Of course, these effects, with crossed of threshold and entering second regime, have led to improvement in the labor market to increase employment and reduce unemployment, but effects of economic growth more have been on reducing unemployment than employment growth.
s
Ali Falahati; Maryam Heidarian
Abstract
In an economy system, government activities play a fundamental role in economic growth and development of countries, but increase these activities have a positive effect on economic growth until a certain threshold and from this threshold excessive increase in government activities not only have no positive ...
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In an economy system, government activities play a fundamental role in economic growth and development of countries, but increase these activities have a positive effect on economic growth until a certain threshold and from this threshold excessive increase in government activities not only have no positive effect on economic growth, but these activities are main barrier to growth. Including of these activities, can mention the government''s capital expenditures and public debt. In this study, is tried to study the threshold effects and non-linear government investment and public debt on GDP in two separate models during of 2000-2016 using of provincial data and Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model (PSTR). The results of linearity test show that there is a nonlinear relationship between variables. Also, the inclusion of a transfer function with a threshold parameter which is representing a two-regime model, is sufficient to determine the nonlinear relationship between variables. The results show that public debt and investment in first regime have a positive effect on GDP, but by crossing of threshold and entering to second regime, severity of this effect will be increased and negative. It seems, this result is due to the crowed-out effect on private sector and increase in public debt due to rising government spending and confirms Laffer curve hypothesis.
