fojan tadayon; Homayoun Ranjbar; mostafa rajabi; morteza sameti
Abstract
Developing countries, including Iran, are trying to make up for the lack of private investment and other problems by trade deficit and budget deficit policies. These policies are supported by Keynes and his supporters. They believe that expansionary effects will shift the macroeconomic budget deficit ...
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Developing countries, including Iran, are trying to make up for the lack of private investment and other problems by trade deficit and budget deficit policies. These policies are supported by Keynes and his supporters. They believe that expansionary effects will shift the macroeconomic budget deficit to equilibrium. But if the budget deficit policy is adopted without considering the total supply, it will cause more inflation and trade deficit without eliminating the recession. In this study, in order to investigate the optimal path of budget deficit and trade deficit in Iran's economy, based on the design of optimal paths of economic variables during the period of 1978-2017, an optimal control theory has been used. Therefore, considering the dynamic behavior of economic variables in the country, the BP-IS-LM model is fitted according to economic theories and based on the econometric bases through the three-stage least squares method. The results of this estimate are used to policy in optimal control theory. The results of this study indicate that Iran's economy will need to control the government expenditures to reach the desired level of target variables, and contractile financial policies will have better results in controlling twin deficits.
Economic Growth
ramiar refaei; morteza sameti; sara ghobadi
Abstract
The history of Iran's economy after the revolution has been in recession for some years and, with the 70s, this trend has deepened, and with the 1990s it seems that the real GDP trend is making serious changes. In this paper, the Markov chain Monte Carlo and Byesian approach are used to simulate the ...
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The history of Iran's economy after the revolution has been in recession for some years and, with the 70s, this trend has deepened, and with the 1990s it seems that the real GDP trend is making serious changes. In this paper, the Markov chain Monte Carlo and Byesian approach are used to simulate the effects of factors affecting the economic recession in Iran during the years 1979- 2016. The results show that the Bayesian approach confirm the results of the model estimation using the Monte Carlo Markov chain approach, and at a reliable level, 97.5% of the coefficients of the variables are statistically significant and reliable. so, the most influential variables were estimated on the economic recession in Iran, are exchange rate changes, crude oil prices, and real GDP. The results also show that the matrix of Bayes factors for all pairings of models is reliable. The later probabilities of regimes and the likelihood ratio indicate that the change points in the sixth model are different with the rest of the models, so the regime change is happening in the sixth model.
Morteza Sameti; Homayoun Ranjbar; Monireh Hematzadeh
Volume 3, Issue 9 , April 2013, , Pages 40-25
Abstract
This study seeks to investigate the relationship between the development of financial sector and real sector in an economy under the asymmetric information because true growth is conditioned to the development of the financial structure, so that, countries with more developed financial sector, enjoy ...
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This study seeks to investigate the relationship between the development of financial sector and real sector in an economy under the asymmetric information because true growth is conditioned to the development of the financial structure, so that, countries with more developed financial sector, enjoy a higher rate of growth than the other countries. In this study the economic growth criterion denotes the development of the real sector, and variables such as ratio of the value of the stock exchange to GDP has been introduced as a criterion of development of financial sector. Also, logarithm of variance of the stock exchange price index and bank credits of the private sector index have been applied as a criterion of asymmetric information in the fiscal and money market. This model is estimated by applying panel data method for selected developed and developing countries in 1993-2008. The results depict the higher effectiveness level of financial market in comparison with money market in the developed countries, also financial structure of the developed countries differs from the developing ones because of a high level and evolved information symmetry in the developed countries, while in the developing countries, the money market is stronger than the stock exchange.
morteza sameti; Homayun Ranjbar; Fazilat Mohseni
Volume 1, Issue 4 , December 2012, , Pages 223-183
Abstract
Good governance is a concept that was proposed in the development literature as a key to the development puzzle in the late 90’s. This concept is derived from the theory of institutionalization and is the product of three institutions including government, private sector and civil society. World ...
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Good governance is a concept that was proposed in the development literature as a key to the development puzzle in the late 90’s. This concept is derived from the theory of institutionalization and is the product of three institutions including government, private sector and civil society. World Bank defines good governance based on six indicators including: voice and accountability, political stability, no violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption. This paper has examined the effect of good governance indicators (prepared by the World Bank) on human development index (HDI) as a criterion for development, in ASEAN countries during 2000-2009 by using panel data analysis. UNDP claims that the hdi is superior to per-capita gdp for measuring development. The result finds that among six indicators of good governance, political stability, no violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality and rule of law have positive and statistically significant effect on human development index.
Hasan Sadeghi; Majid Sameti; Morteza Sameti
Volume 2, Issue 6 , May 2012, , Pages 249-209
Abstract
Economic development programs, especially in developing countries, as much as national economies interaction with the global economy, are affected ...
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Economic development programs, especially in developing countries, as much as national economies interaction with the global economy, are affected by economic globalization process. It has also been shown that the national economies, are seriously affected by this phenomenon. Economic development at the national level, without the active interaction with the global economy suffers a serious challenge. On the other hand, the development programs in developing countries are influenced by the size of government. Towards globalization, governments should take actions to create and promote a competitive environment. In too many studies, the impact of globalization on government size has been analyzed but the results have not been the same. In this paper, using panel data and econometric methods, the effects of globalization on the size of government in selected Asian countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia and Iran) have been studied. The results show that economic globalization has not reduced the size of government in these selected countries.
