Ali Abbasi; Ali Hussein Samadi; Ebrahim Hadian; Parviz Rostamzadeh
Abstract
The effectiveness of monetary policy is one of the most challenges of monetary authorities. It depends on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy authorities and private sector behavior. Fiscal authority may or may not respect its intertemporal budget balance. Private agent's behavior in forecasting ...
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The effectiveness of monetary policy is one of the most challenges of monetary authorities. It depends on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy authorities and private sector behavior. Fiscal authority may or may not respect its intertemporal budget balance. Private agent's behavior in forecasting future values of macroeconomic variables is of the most importance. In standard monetary policy models, it is assumed that the fiscal authority tries to settle its outstanding debt. It is also assumed that, the economic agents forecast the future values of macroeconomic variables with rational expectations. Some studies about fiscal structure of the governments have shown that governments face with sustained budget deficit or accumulating outstanding debt. In this respect, many studies have investigated monetary policy in the context of fiscal authority which is not willing or not able to respect its intertemporal budget balance. At the same time many studies and evidences have shown that expectation formation of economic agents departs from rational expectations and different groups of agents may use different procedures to forecast future values of macroeconomic variables. This paper, taking into account these issues, drives the appropriate monetary rule under heterogeneous expectations and fiscal dominance in Iran. For this purpose, a closed economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two types of expectations: forward looking rational and backward looking adaptive expectations is used. Simulation results show that a fiscal shock increases production, inflation, investment and decreases consumption. Money growth rate shock increases production, inflation and consumption and decreases investment. Comparing the effects of two shocks shows that the effects of fiscal shock on variables is greater than the effect of monetary shock. It is also shown that increasing the share of non-rational agents increases the volatility of inflation expectations and output gap in response to fiscal and monetary shocks. This shows the importance of anchoring expectations in monetary policy design.
Saeed Moshiri; Sho'le Bagheri Pormehr; Hadi Mousavy nik
Volume 2, Issue 5 , March 2012, , Pages 90-69
Abstract
One of the problems in developing countries is unpleasant nexus between fiscal and monetary policies. Some of the economists believe that the main reason for inflation in such economies is monetaricizing of Government debt such as bounds. In this article it is tried to estimate the Degree of Fiscal Dominance ...
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One of the problems in developing countries is unpleasant nexus between fiscal and monetary policies. Some of the economists believe that the main reason for inflation in such economies is monetaricizing of Government debt such as bounds. In this article it is tried to estimate the Degree of Fiscal Dominance in Iran’s economy using General Equilibrium Dynamic Stochastic Model based on Bayesian approach. Our result reaches to 77 percent for fiscal dominance which shows a low degree of central bank independence. At the end the usefulness of the obtained results are examined using some indices.
Seyed Komail Tayebi; Mostafa Emadzadeh; Hajar Rostami
Volume 1, Issue 2 , January 2012, , Pages 94-71
Abstract
The process of skilled international migration from developing countries to developed ones has considerably grown during two recent decades. In 1970s, most economists agreed brain drain resulted in reducing human capital stock and thus hurt developing economies. However, according to the studies of the ...
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The process of skilled international migration from developing countries to developed ones has considerably grown during two recent decades. In 1970s, most economists agreed brain drain resulted in reducing human capital stock and thus hurt developing economies. However, according to the studies of the recent decades, positive effects of brain drain on the source economies have been controversial. In this paper, it is tried to explore the effect of brain drain on economic growth of source developing countries. More than 90 percent of skilled emigrants of the world live in 30 of OECD countries, while more than 90 percent out of this live in the U.S., England, Canada, German, Australia and France. Accordingly, this paper explores the effect of brain drain on economic growth of 79 developing countries where skilled people have immigrated to the target countries during 1991 to 2004. To this purpose, the paper has examined the effect by specifying a panel growth regression model. The empirical results have shown that the effect of brain drain on human capital stock of the source countries has been negative and significant, while its direct effect on the economic growth of such countries has not been statistically significant. It implies that brain drain reduces the economic growth of the selected developing countries by reducing their human capital stock.
Nader Mehregan; Asghar Sepahban Gharehbaba; Elham Lorestani Lorestani
Volume 2, Issue 6 , May 2012, , Pages 94-71
Abstract
In Lucas growth endogenous, we focus on human education that causes the weakness of decline return. Therefore the lack of autogenous technology cannot omit long term per capita growth. Human capital against autogenous growth model can be saved by investment i.e. people can choose how long they ...
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In Lucas growth endogenous, we focus on human education that causes the weakness of decline return. Therefore the lack of autogenous technology cannot omit long term per capita growth. Human capital against autogenous growth model can be saved by investment i.e. people can choose how long they invest on education. So it is supposed that human capital is an accumulated input with fix return. Finally from the model concluded that in shortage of autogenous technical progress the long term growth rate can be explained by accumulation of human capital. In this paper it is tried to search the effect of human education on growth rate in Iran by Lucas growth endogenous. The model that has been used in this paper is estimated by time series of 1959-2007 and five steps co-integration approach of Johansson and Vector Error Correction Model. Finally, based on two obtained co-integrated vectors, it is concluded that in long term there is a positive relationship between index of knowledge oriented employment and increase of physical capital's accumulation on Iran's economic growth. In addition, both of these vectors show that knowledge oriented employment has been very influential in the economic growth of the country in the long term.
Economic Integration
Seyede Zahra Shakeri; Fatemeh Kobra Bata
Volume 1, Issue 3 , January 2012, , Pages 98-73
Abstract
Globalization is a dynamic movement that is taken all aspects of the economy, or affecting them. It implies a process which, during that, gradually borders disappears, and synchronously international transactions increase. For developing countries who, are not able to enter into globalization process, ...
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Globalization is a dynamic movement that is taken all aspects of the economy, or affecting them. It implies a process which, during that, gradually borders disappears, and synchronously international transactions increase. For developing countries who, are not able to enter into globalization process, in short term, economic integration and the formation of regional trade blocks, is the most effective way to open economy and integrate into global economy. This paper deals with the economic integration among Iran and Latin American countries in the shape of trade block formation. In fact, the main purpose of this paper is to investigate the success or failure of the trade block and its effects on bilateral trade between Iran and these countries. To this need, the Generalized Gravity Model is used, also Panel Data Method is used to estimate the model.The results express that economic cooperation between Iran and Latin America, remarkably increases bilateral trade between the two sides. In other words, trade block leads a 89 percent increase in trade among member countries.
Maryam Amini; Nematola Akbari; Rozita Moayedfar; Fatemeh Bazzazan
Abstract
Economic prosperity (recession) means that the GDP increases (decreases) between two consecutive periods. One of the important approaches in examining economic prosperity and recession is the use of the capital matrix. This matrix is a suitable solution for providing the analysis of calculable general ...
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Economic prosperity (recession) means that the GDP increases (decreases) between two consecutive periods. One of the important approaches in examining economic prosperity and recession is the use of the capital matrix. This matrix is a suitable solution for providing the analysis of calculable general equilibrium patterns such as the dynamic input-output model. However, the main problem in the country is the lack of regional capital matrix statistical data. Therefore, it is practically impossible to check economic prosperity and recession at the regional level. The aim of the current research is to provide a non-statistical solution based on the theoretical foundations of the data to estimate the regional capital matrix from the national capital matrix. The results show that as the time interval increases, the estimated capital formation value of the region will be closer to the real capital formation value of the sector. This is truer in sectors that are inherently more disruptive. On the other hand, the results show that the most capital productions are related to industry, construction and agriculture sectors. Also, most capital purchases are related to industry, services and real estate sectors. On the other hand, the analysis of the regional capital matrix shows economic prosperity in 2015 for Isfahan province.
s
robabeh khilkordi; Nezamuddin makiyan; habib ansarisamani
Abstract
Currency volatility is very important because of its adverse effects on economic performance and especially economic stability. In this regard, the present study investigates the behavior of the most important macroeconomic variables on exchange rate fluctuations in Iran's economy based on seasonal data ...
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Currency volatility is very important because of its adverse effects on economic performance and especially economic stability. In this regard, the present study investigates the behavior of the most important macroeconomic variables on exchange rate fluctuations in Iran's economy based on seasonal data of 1376-1401 with the help of the Auto-explanatory Vector Model Augmented with Time-varying Parameters (TVP-FAVAR). The results of the study of shock-reaction functions of the variables indicate that many exchange rate fluctuations are influenced by the behavior of some of the most important fundamental variables of the economy, including the budget deficit, inflation rate, liquidity and economic policy uncertainty. The more accurate modeling of exchange rate fluctuations and following that, predicting the range of exchange rate fluctuations in future periods requires that the relevant policy makers, while closely monitoring the behavior of the fundamental variables of the economy, adopt stability-creating policies to prevent extensive and unpredictable changes in the behavior of such variables
behrouz sadeghi Amroabadi; vahid Kafili khajeh
Abstract
In economic literature, the subject of development has been of great importance for a long time. As the smallest social unit, the household is affected by the development indicators, and in turn, its mutations affect the development situation in any society. The purpose of this study is to investigate ...
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In economic literature, the subject of development has been of great importance for a long time. As the smallest social unit, the household is affected by the development indicators, and in turn, its mutations affect the development situation in any society. The purpose of this study is to investigate the causality between the household dimension and economic development. For this purpose, the data of the last three censuses and statistical yearbooks were used to extract the size of the household and construct the development index for each province based on the TOPSIS method. Also, in order to investigate the causality, we used the panel causality test, presented by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) based on the vector autoregression (VAR) model and the Wald tests with bootstrap critical values specific to each sector. The causality results do not confirm the existence of causality from the household dimension to economic development, but the causality from economic development to the household dimension cannot be rejected. Also, the regression results based on panel data indicate a positive and significant relationship between the development variable and the household dimension.
Human Capital
Marzieh Shakeri HosseinAbad; Zahra Nasrollahi
Abstract
Women's participation in the labor market has an effect not only on the economic development of a country but also on contribution to gender equality. In addition, empowering women can lead to an improvement in household welfare by reducing the dependency ratio and increasing per capita income. Although ...
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Women's participation in the labor market has an effect not only on the economic development of a country but also on contribution to gender equality. In addition, empowering women can lead to an improvement in household welfare by reducing the dependency ratio and increasing per capita income. Although various social, cultural, political, and economic factors affect women's entry into the labor market, the wages paid to women compared to men can be an important factor in women's decision to participate in the labor market. This research was designed to investigate the factors affecting women's economic participation with an emphasis on gender wage discrimination in the years 1385-1400 with five-year intervals and separated by the provinces of Iran, and the wage gender discrimination in this research was calculated using the Neomark method. The results show that the variables of the unemployment rate, the proportion of poor people, the share of female students, and mobile phones have had a positive and significant effect on the participation of women in the labor market of urban areas. While the gender wage discrimination variable has a negative and significant effect on women's decision to enter the labor market. Therefore, adopting policies aimed at improving women's education as a way to promote their economic participation can be considered. In addition, policies to reduce gender wage discrimination are considered as an effective measure in increasing the economic participation of women compared to men.
Hamed Sahebhonar; Ali Cheshomi; Mohammad Ali Falahi
Volume 3, Issue 11 , September 2013, , Pages 56-41
Abstract
Empirical studies show that money has real effects in short-run but is neutral in long-run. According to transmission chanels of monetary policy, there is a possibility that each sector has a different response to monetary shocks. This paper, using the BVAR method and seasonal data, investigates the ...
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Empirical studies show that money has real effects in short-run but is neutral in long-run. According to transmission chanels of monetary policy, there is a possibility that each sector has a different response to monetary shocks. This paper, using the BVAR method and seasonal data, investigates the sectoral effects of monetary shocks during 1988:Q2 to 2011:Q2. The results show that monetary shocks have real effects in short-run and the reaction of sectors are different. In addition, the effects of moneatary shocks on services and industry sectors are stronger than on agriculture sector.
s
Mohammad Jafari
Volume 8, Issue 29 , December 2017, , Pages 61-76
Abstract
Due to the important role of economic globalization in income inequality of countries, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the non-linear impact of economic globalization on income inequality in Iran during 1979-2014. For this purpose, is used the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The ...
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Due to the important role of economic globalization in income inequality of countries, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the non-linear impact of economic globalization on income inequality in Iran during 1979-2014. For this purpose, is used the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The estimated Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model supports a nonlinear threshold behavior in the relationship between economic globalization and income inequality in the country in a two regime structures with positive effect and a threshold level of about 26/15%. so that increases the intensity of this positive impact with crossing threshold level and entering the second regime.
International Commerce
Mohammad Mahdi Barghi Oskooee; Alireza Kazerooni; Behzad Salmani; Saber Khodaverdizadeh
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 61-78
Abstract
The trade balance is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, and the macroeconomic strategic constraints for developing countries. The main target of this paper is study the effect of savings rate on the trade balance. According to the article target we used time series data of Iranian macroeconomic ...
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The trade balance is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, and the macroeconomic strategic constraints for developing countries. The main target of this paper is study the effect of savings rate on the trade balance. According to the article target we used time series data of Iranian macroeconomic variables during 1960-2015 with application of fuzzy regression and auto regressive distributed lag approaches. The results of fuzzy regression approach show that savings rate and GDP per capita have a positive effect on the trade balance in the short term and long term. In the other hand the real effective exchange rate and degree of trade openness have a negative effect on the trade balance in long term. Also the results of auto regressive distributed lag approach show that savings rate, trade openness and GDP per capita have a positive effect on the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate has a negative effect on the trade balance. The other results are: error correction coefficient shows that 93 present of unbalanced short term adjusted to achieving long term balance. According to the results of research to reduce the trade deficit, an increase in gross domestic savings can be one of the important policy recommendations.
Maryam Mousivand; Ali Safaei Shakib; Pouria Ataei; Babak Abdolmaleki
Volume 6, 23(2) , September 2016, , Pages 64-55
Abstract
The main aim of this study is to analyze effect of psychological capital components on identifying entrepreneurial opportunities of Agriculture Jahad Organization staffs of Hamedan Province. Sample size was 245 staffs that selected through simple random sampling method. The data were obtained through ...
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The main aim of this study is to analyze effect of psychological capital components on identifying entrepreneurial opportunities of Agriculture Jahad Organization staffs of Hamedan Province. Sample size was 245 staffs that selected through simple random sampling method. The data were obtained through two questionnaires of psychological capital (Luthans et al., 2007) and entrepreneurial opportunities (Puhakka, 2010). Face validity of the questionnaire was obtained through an experts’ panel and reliability was obtained through pilot testing and calculating Cronbach's alpha (psychological capital= 0.88, entrepreneurial opportunities= 0.91). Finding’s showed that psychological capital and entrepreneurial opportunities of Agriculture Jahad Organization staffs respectively was low to medium and medium. The results indicate a significant positive relationship (r= 0.766) between psychological capital and distinguish entrepreneurial opportunities (p= 0/001). The variables of self-efficiency, hope, resilience and optimism respectively have had most effect on identifying entrepreneurial opportunities. Finally, psychological capital dimensions were significant predictors to recognize entrepreneurial opportunities (p> 0.01).
s
Mohammad Hassan Fotros; ali dalaei milan
Volume 7, Issue 25 , November 2016, , Pages 65-84
Abstract
Planning for economic development and making a decision for the implementation of economic policies, need to understand the performance of the whole economy, including the official sector and the underground sector. Understanding the performance of the whole economy requires to know economic information ...
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Planning for economic development and making a decision for the implementation of economic policies, need to understand the performance of the whole economy, including the official sector and the underground sector. Understanding the performance of the whole economy requires to know economic information system situation and its efficiency. This study used a DSGE model framework for modelling the underground economy and the effect of oil shock, fiscal impulses (such as changing tax rates) and the shock of productivity on the official economy and underground economy. The results of the evaluation showed that the present model was well able to simulate cyclical behavior and volatility of the variables. The results also showed that a positive impulse to the productivity of official sector caused an increase in official production and a decrease in underground economy and this consequently reduced tax evasion and increased government revenue. On the contrary an impulse to the underground sector productivity of, leaded to a decrease in official production, an increase in underground production and consequently an increase in tax evasion and reducing the government's revenues. Furthermore, a positive shock in the corporate tax rate and income tax rate reduced the official production, increased underground production and tax evasion and decreased government revenue. Positive shock to oil revenues increased official production and reduced underground economy and consequently reduced tax evasion and increased revenue for the government..
s
Mohammad Mahdi Bargi Oskooee; Mohammad Khodaverdizadeh; Saber Khodaverdizadeh; Ali Vafamand
Volume 7, Issue 27 , July 2017, , Pages 65-80
Abstract
This paper investigates the threshold effects of income inequality on economic growth in developing countries for the period of 2000 to 2012, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. The linearity test results indicate strongly nonlinear relationship among variables under consideration. ...
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This paper investigates the threshold effects of income inequality on economic growth in developing countries for the period of 2000 to 2012, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. The linearity test results indicate strongly nonlinear relationship among variables under consideration. Moreover, considering one transition function and one threshold parameter, as a two regime model, is sufficient to specification of nonlinear relationship among variables.The results indicate thatthreshold value for developing countries is 0.43 and the estimated slopeparameter is 0.35. In the first regime the impact of income inequality is positive and in the second regime has a negative impact on economic growth. human capital in the both regimes has symmetric and consistent effect on economic growth. Other results indicate that population growth and trade openness had been asymmetric effect on economic growth in the both regimes.
Zahra Nasorllahi Nasorllahi; Fakhr-o-Sadat Salehi
Volume 2, Issue 7 , September 2012, , Pages 66-51
Abstract
Location of eco-industrial park is one of the most effective factors to achieve the sustainable development because eco-industrial park causes to coordinate goal of different groups: economic development planners, urban development planners, economic firms and environment objective. Therefore, the main ...
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Location of eco-industrial park is one of the most effective factors to achieve the sustainable development because eco-industrial park causes to coordinate goal of different groups: economic development planners, urban development planners, economic firms and environment objective. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to determine the criteria influencing the location of industrial park according to sustainable development indicators. Study of existing literature shows that social, economic, environmental, infrastructure and planning factors are effective factors to locate industrial park according to sustainable development. Prioritization of criteria is according to Fuzzy AHP and triangular fuzzy number. The results of this study show that social and economic factors are the most important factors in location of industrial parks.
Energy
Davood Manzoor; Vahid Aryanpur
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 67-82
Abstract
This paper mainly focuses on the development of electricity supply system in Iran. A bottom-up energy system model is employed to identify the optimal generation mix. The model minimizes the total system costs using linear mix-integer programming under a set of technical, economic and environmental constraints. ...
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This paper mainly focuses on the development of electricity supply system in Iran. A bottom-up energy system model is employed to identify the optimal generation mix. The model minimizes the total system costs using linear mix-integer programming under a set of technical, economic and environmental constraints. Then, the optimal generation mix is compared with the actual transition pathway during the planning horizon. The comparison of historical development trend with the optimal scenario (model results) indicates that: 1- The average efficiency of thermal power plants is 4.5 percent lower than the optimal conditions, 2- Optimal pathway could save 90 billion cubic meters of natural gas and prevent CO2 emissions of 400 million tonnes over the study period, and 3- The annual additional costs of $630 million was imposed due to lack of funding.
Arshia FARAJI TABRIZI; kambiz hojabre kiani; Abbas Memarnejad; Farhad. ghaffari
Abstract
The aim of this study is to investigate the short-term and long-term asymmetric effects of exchange rate on Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP). Considering the importance of the issue in policy making and the possibility of influencing production through exchange rate, in this study, the effects ...
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The aim of this study is to investigate the short-term and long-term asymmetric effects of exchange rate on Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP). Considering the importance of the issue in policy making and the possibility of influencing production through exchange rate, in this study, the effects of positive and negative exchange rate shocks on Iran's GDP in the short and long term with nonlinear distributed autoregressive lags (NARDL) have been investigated in the period of 1991 to the fourth quarter of 2018 and the "Shine et al" model is the main basis of the research. For this purpose, using explanatory variables of liquidity volume, exchange rate, degree of openness of economy, gross domestic capital stock, labor and oil prices, through band test confirms the existence of a long-term asymmetric equilibrium relationship and also confirms the results of asymmetric relationship between real exchange rate and GDP. In the short term, the decrease in real exchange rate leads to an increase in GDP and an increase in the exchange rate has negative and significant effects on GDP, and in the long run, the severity of negative shocks has been more than positive shocks, this effect has been positive and asymmetric.
Shahram Golestani; Abbas Jogheini; Mahmood Khorasani
Volume 2, Issue 8 , December 2012, , Pages 68-51
Abstract
Recently, the study of relation between economic convergences with the business cycle synchronizations among countries has become one of the important issues in economic literature. In this investigation the business cycle synchronization with the oil revenues studied for OPEC member countries. In this ...
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Recently, the study of relation between economic convergences with the business cycle synchronizations among countries has become one of the important issues in economic literature. In this investigation the business cycle synchronization with the oil revenues studied for OPEC member countries. In this study, the annual data for the period 1973-2010, are used. At first, the time series of GDP and oil revenues have de-trended by the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. Then, after confirming the business cycle synchronization and the oil revenues synchronization for OPEC member countries, the relationship between the business cycle synchronization with oil revenues are tested by Panel-VAR model. The results represent positive relationship between the business cycle synchronization and oil revenues for OPEC countries.
Shabanali Noroozi; Habibollah Najafi; Mehran Farajollahi; Mohammad Reza Sarmadi
Volume 5, 17(2) , October 2015, , Pages 68-55
Abstract
The main objective of the research is to design the suitable knowledge transfer in agricultural research centers through distance education. The research method was a combinational one. The primary information was collected through Delphi method by knowledge transfer experts. After extraction of main ...
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The main objective of the research is to design the suitable knowledge transfer in agricultural research centers through distance education. The research method was a combinational one. The primary information was collected through Delphi method by knowledge transfer experts. After extraction of main criterias and determination of validity and reliability, the questionnaire was given to test givers. The data collection method was a field (questionnaire) and documentary one. The statistical population included 1930 people; scientific staff, the educators, the educational trainers of agricultural research institutions and centers. According to Morgan table, the sample volume was calculated on groups, separation is and to their population were 641 people ,which were selected as random classification.The data analysis was performed by descriptive and interventional statistics (the subjective /explorative analysis of first Bartlett and approval analysis) through application of SPSS and LISREL software.The findings illuminate the variance of each criteriaas; 11/90 percent for knowledge creation, 11/80 distance education technology, 8/49 percent for financial resources, 7.05% for content production, 5.98 percent for ICT, 5.74 percent for psychology, 5.39 percent for organizational culture, 4.98 percent policy making, which includes 61.37 percent of total variance of related criteria by knowledge transfer model. The goodness fit test shows the k-square rate as 2681.37 with freedom degree of 406. The significant level was less than 0.05 errors and also the rate of RMSEA on the mentioned calculation was equal to 0.094. and when this rate becomes more than 0.08, then it will show that the model is good and well fitted.
توسعه مالی
Sadegh Ali Movahed Manesh
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, , Pages 69-82
Abstract
Financial markets is one of the most important mechanisms to attract investment and efficient distribution of assets by transferring savings to investment.Given the importance of insurance in the country's economic activities, the effect of insurance industry on the GDP of Iran is calculated. Thus the ...
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Financial markets is one of the most important mechanisms to attract investment and efficient distribution of assets by transferring savings to investment.Given the importance of insurance in the country's economic activities, the effect of insurance industry on the GDP of Iran is calculated. Thus the insurance penetration rate and degree of trade openness on GDP in Iran during 1971-2013 were examined. The generalized model of Avram (2010) were used. Long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables of the model was confirmed by Johansen-Juselius tests. According to GMM, the results showed a positive effect of country's insurance penetration rate on the GDP of Iran.
Mahdi Nouri; Hamed Navidi
Volume 3, Issue 9 , April 2013, , Pages 70-59
Abstract
Expanding non-oil export to get rid of one-product economy has been known as a solution for economic development inIran. Hence, it is necessary to study factors affecting this economic variable. The exchange rate and risk associated with its unexpected volatilities can be noted as the factors affecting ...
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Expanding non-oil export to get rid of one-product economy has been known as a solution for economic development inIran. Hence, it is necessary to study factors affecting this economic variable. The exchange rate and risk associated with its unexpected volatilities can be noted as the factors affecting export. On this basis, this research aims to investigate the effect of real exchange rate risk onIran’s non-oil export. To do this, the disaggregate data belonging to 13Iran’s trading partners over the period of 1985-2010 was used. The panel data approach was also utilized in the analysis process. Furthermore, to more accurate investigate of this subject, 7 alternative criteria were used to assess the volatility of real exchange rate. The results indicated that the exchange rate risk has a positive and significant effect onIran’s non-oil export in the short-run. This result could be attributed to the positive nature of exchange rate volatility in Iran so that this matter could change the expectations of economic agents, especially exporters, to improve the general trend of real exchange rate.
Economic Growth
Ahmad Jafari Samimi; elham alizadeh malafeh
Volume 6, Issue 22 , January 2016, , Pages 70-57
Abstract
Expansion of energy consumption and trend of rising emissions of pollutants resulting from the combustion of energy carriers in the world has caused environmental crises which be recognized as one of the most important challenges which governments in the twenty-first century are facing. That is why governments ...
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Expansion of energy consumption and trend of rising emissions of pollutants resulting from the combustion of energy carriers in the world has caused environmental crises which be recognized as one of the most important challenges which governments in the twenty-first century are facing. That is why governments try to take various policies and programs in order to overcome on environmental problems such as air pollution. One of the most common types of policies that cause minimum inefficiency in the economy is obtaining the green taxes which is applied on the basis of cost. Accordingly, in this study, the effects of increase of green taxes on economic growth, based on the design of Computable General Equilibrium model for Iran and implementation of Social Accounting Matrix in 2001 in the form of eight scenarios were examined.
The increasing rates of taxes from one to forty percent have been done in eight scenarios. The obtained results show that the increasing rate of green taxes as an indirect one increases the economic growth in all scenarios. also the positive effect of lower pollution leads in positive economic growth in all scenarios, too.
Hamid Sepehrdoust; Saber Zamani Shabkhaneh
Volume 5, 17(3) , December 2015, , Pages 70-57
atefeh ahmadi; ahmad salahmanesh; hassan farazmand; ebrahim anvari
Abstract
Due to the importance of developing non-oil exports in the country, in this study, the cement export market, which is one of the basic and strategic industries, has been studied. Therefore, by calculating the productivity threshold, counting the costs of penetration of the trading partner countries, ...
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Due to the importance of developing non-oil exports in the country, in this study, the cement export market, which is one of the basic and strategic industries, has been studied. Therefore, by calculating the productivity threshold, counting the costs of penetration of the trading partner countries, the export growth rate has been studied by solow model, panel data and Econometric model of (FGLS) for the period 2003-2020. Results for 12 trading partner countries show that firms with productivity close to the threshold value are able to the more penetrate in market. However, the presence of external threats (such as economic sanctions, recession in the country, transportation facilities, corona disease and etc.) have a negative impact on the growth rate of cement exports. In addition, measures such as increasing the productivity of enterprises, expanding international marketing activities and government support policies reduced the effects of external threats on cement exports.
