The Nonlinear Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Iran Based on Threshold Approach
Mohsen
Mehrara
عضو هیئت علمی
author
Mahmoud
Zareei
دانشجو
author
text
article
2012
per
This paper investigates the possibility of both linear and nonlinear effects of energy consumption on economic growth in Iran, using data for the period of 1959–2007 based on threshold regression. Some previous studies support the view that energy consumption may promote economic growth. However, the conclusion drawn from this study suggests that such relationship exists only where there is a low level of energy consumption in Iran. The evidence shows that, there are two break points (corresponding with three regimes) in economic growth function. For the low energy consumption regime (where per capita energy consumption is less than 5 barrels) we find that energy consumption has an important positive influence on economic growth with coefficient 0.09, which is not the case with the high or middle regime. In middle regime with per capita energy consumption between 5 and 8 barrels, the marginal effect of energy use on economic growth gets to 0.015. For the regime corresponding to per capita energy consumption above the threshold 8 barrels, the marginal effect of energy use is reduced to about zero. We show that a threshold regression provides a better empirical model rather than the standard linear model and policy-makers should seek to capture economic structures associated with different stages of economic growth.
Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research
Payame Noor University, Iran.
2228-5954
2
v.
5
no.
2012
44
11
http://egdr.journals.pnu.ac.ir/article_76_5aad848640710af4cb9bd9f3751d2854.pdf
The Nonlinear Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Iran Based on Threshold Approach
Seyed Nezamuddin
Makiyan
عضو هیئت علمی
author
Azadeh
Saadatkhah
author
text
article
2012
per
This paper investigates the possibility of both linear and nonlinear effects of energy consumption on economic growth in Iran, using data for the period of 1959–2007 based on threshold regression. Some previous studies support the view that energy consumption may promote economic growth. However, the conclusion drawn from this study suggests that such relationship exists only where there is a low level of energy consumption in Iran. The evidence shows that, there are two break points (corresponding with three regimes) in economic growth function. For the low energy consumption regime (where per capita energy consumption is less than 5 barrels) we find that energy consumption has an important positive influence on economic growth with coefficient 0.09, which is not the case with the high or middle regime. In middle regime with per capita energy consumption between 5 and 8 barrels, the marginal effect of energy use on economic growth gets to 0.015. For the regime corresponding to per capita energy consumption above the threshold 8 barrels, the marginal effect of energy use is reduced to about zero. We show that a threshold regression provides a better empirical model rather than the standard linear model and policy-makers should seek to capture economic structures associated with different stages of economic growth.
Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research
Payame Noor University, Iran.
2228-5954
2
v.
5
no.
2012
68
45
http://egdr.journals.pnu.ac.ir/article_81_673b2892ffb6638846db2b410e1c4ba6.pdf
Surveying Degree of Fiscal Dominance in Iran’s Economy in a General Equilibrium Dynamic Stochastic Model
Saeed
Moshiri
عضو هیئت علمی
author
Sho'le
Bagheri Pormehr
دانشجو
author
Hadi
Mousavy nik
دانشجو
author
text
article
2012
per
One of the problems in developing countries is unpleasant nexus between fiscal and monetary policies. Some of the economists believe that the main reason for inflation in such economies is monetaricizing of Government debt such as bounds. In this article it is tried to estimate the Degree of Fiscal Dominance in Iran’s economy using General Equilibrium Dynamic Stochastic Model based on Bayesian approach. Our result reaches to 77 percent for fiscal dominance which shows a low degree of central bank independence. At the end the usefulness of the obtained results are examined using some indices.
Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research
Payame Noor University, Iran.
2228-5954
2
v.
5
no.
2012
90
69
http://egdr.journals.pnu.ac.ir/article_82_196600aec1a5dd19514f2a768b330839.pdf
Waqf as a Source for Islamic Micro Finance: Presenting a Model for Establishment of Waqf-based Micro Finance Institutions in Iran
Gholamreza
Mesbahi Moghadam
عضو هیئت علمی
author
Hossein
Meisami
دانشجو
author
Mohsen
Abdollahi
دانشجو
author
Mehdi
Ghaemi Asl
author
text
article
2012
per
Introducing Waqf as an Islamic economic institution, this paper proposes a native model for the establishment of micro finance institutes in Iran and highlights the financing sources and allocation ways for them. In addition, it examines the Fiqh economic establishment possibility of such institutions in the country. After all, the characteristics and potencies of such Islamic micro finance institutions are evaluated and some lights are shed on the probable challenges they might face and solutions are looked for these challenges. The findings of this study, which are based upon theoretical analyses, show that the institution of Waqf in Islamic economic system has the Fiqh economic potential to be used as a financial source for Islamic micro finance institutions
Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research
Payame Noor University, Iran.
2228-5954
2
v.
5
no.
2012
130
91
http://egdr.journals.pnu.ac.ir/article_83_acb1c47d4487a825ac2b89bcb408184b.pdf
Detecting the Housing Price Bubble in Tehran During 1992-2009
(By Using Poterba's Model and Tobin's Q Theory)
Jahangir
Biabani
author
Taghva
Khosravi
author
text
article
2012
per
In this study, the existence or non-existence of housing price bubble in Tehran is investigated by both econometric and graphical approaches during the period of 1992:Q2 to 2009:Q1. For this purpose, Poterba's model is combined with Tobin's Q theory, which provides us with an academic tool for analyzing the effects of supply and demand shocks on house price and also deviations from fundamental value of house price in the LR and SR. In econometric approach, by using the defined variables in Poterba's model as the effective factors on housing demand and Tobin's Q ratio as an effective criterion for housing supply, fundamental value of house price is estimated by Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the residuals of ARDL model is then concerned as the "bubble component". Next, in graphical approach, by using second method of detecting price bubble namely deviation from LR average of some ratios like P/CC, P/R, P/Y and P/DM, their graphs are illustrated. The existence of two price bubbles in Tehran housing market in 1996-97 and 2007-08 is verified mainly in both methods. As well, findings show that all inflation, Tobin's Q ratio, real rent, number of households and housing stock are the determining elements of the fundamental value of house price in Tehran and these variables tend to long run equilibrium at a confidence level more than 95%.
Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research
Payame Noor University, Iran.
2228-5954
2
v.
5
no.
2012
182
131
http://egdr.journals.pnu.ac.ir/article_84_4b4e955eb8fb642d76e363a2982b8537.pdf
Exploring the Relationship between Economic Development and Road Traffic Fatalities in Iran: a Negative Binomial Regression Approach
Elham
Zokaii
دانشجو
author
Hassan
Khodavaisi
author
Firouz
Fallahi
author
text
article
2012
per
Road traffic fatalities are a major problem for the whole world. This problem is very well-known for the Iranian society. In this paper we would like to examine the relationship between road traffic fatalities and economic development indicators in Iran during 2005-2008 for 30 Iranian provinces. Many papers have been devoted to study this subject in both developed and developing countries. These papers concluded that at the very beginning stages of development, road traffic fatalities increase, but decline once income levels have exceeded a certain threshold level. This phenomenon resembles the Kuznets curve (1955) that explained income inequality and per capita income. Later on this idea has been expanded to explain the relationship between road traffic fatalities and economic growth which is known as inverted U shape Kuznets Curve. In this study we use panel data for 30 Iranian provinces and use Random Effects for Negative Binomial Regression to estimate the model. Our results confirm that there is indeed an inverted U shape relationship between economic growth and road traffic fatalities in Iran, and there is positive relationship between income inequality and road traffic fatalities in Iran.
Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research
Payame Noor University, Iran.
2228-5954
2
v.
5
no.
2012
206
183
http://egdr.journals.pnu.ac.ir/article_85_55de970831eda80f3635309591cfc370.pdf
Transport Position and Its Effect on the Other Economic Sectors in Iran: An Input-Output Analysis
Nooraddin
Sharify
author
text
article
2012
per
This paper investigates the possibility of both linear and nonlinear effects of energy consumption on economic growth in Iran, using data for the period of 1959–2007 based on threshold regression. Some previous studies support the view that energy consumption may promote economic growth. However, the conclusion drawn from this study suggests that such relationship exists only where there is a low level of energy consumption in Iran. The evidence shows that, there are two break points (corresponding with three regimes) in economic growth function. For the low energy consumption regime (where per capita energy consumption is less than 5 barrels) we find that energy consumption has an important positive influence on economic growth with coefficient 0.09, which is not the case with the high or middle regime. In middle regime with per capita energy consumption between 5 and 8 barrels, the marginal effect of energy use on economic growth gets to 0.015. For the regime corresponding to per capita energy consumption above the threshold 8 barrels, the marginal effect of energy use is reduced to about zero. We show that a threshold regression provides a better empirical model rather than the standard linear model and policy-makers should seek to capture economic structures associated with different stages of economic growth
Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research
Payame Noor University, Iran.
2228-5954
2
v.
5
no.
2012
238
207
http://egdr.journals.pnu.ac.ir/article_86_9a5306bdb4f4505ae55549d1537192a6.pdf