International Commerce
hana abolhasanbeigi; Alireza Kazerooni; Mahdi Barghi Oskooee; Hossein Asgharpur
Abstract
Inflation volatility is one of the characteristics of Iranian economy over the past four decades. Inflation volatility by creating macroeconomic instability can affect the relation of economic variables. The purpose of this study is the evaluation of the impact of nonlinear inflation volatility on the ...
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Inflation volatility is one of the characteristics of Iranian economy over the past four decades. Inflation volatility by creating macroeconomic instability can affect the relation of economic variables. The purpose of this study is the evaluation of the impact of nonlinear inflation volatility on the relationships between the Iranian trade balance with the exchange rate during the 1973-2016. For this purpose, firstlyinflation volatility by using EGARCH method has been estimated and the model was estimated by Markov-switching model. The results show that the behavior of trade balance in Iran can be divided in 3 regimes (high, medium and low trade deficit). Increased exchange rate has induced the improvement of trade balance in 3 regimes. The effect of inflation volatility on the relationship of exchange rate to trade balance in the high and medium trade deficit regime is insignificant. Whereas in the regime 3 (low trade balance deficit) is negative and significant. So that in the regime 3(low trade deficit) inflation volatility has caused to debilitation of exchange rate effect on the trade balance and with the increase in inflation volatility exchange rate effect on the trade balance is further debilitation.
International Commerce
somaye alikarami; Ebrahim Hadian; parviz rostamzadeh; Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri
Abstract
The purpose of this study has been to consider the effects of non-price factors along with price factors on the demand of Iranian export from 1988 to 2017.In this research, a single error correction model is used to evaluate the short-term dynamics and long-term effects simultaneously. Moreover, in this ...
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The purpose of this study has been to consider the effects of non-price factors along with price factors on the demand of Iranian export from 1988 to 2017.In this research, a single error correction model is used to evaluate the short-term dynamics and long-term effects simultaneously. Moreover, in this study compare to previous researches, a more flexible approach has been included in the export function which is based on the structural time series' patterns which are the trends that express the effects of non-pricing factors. Then, the OXmetric software and the Kalman filter is utilized to estimate the amount of trend in each year, and the effect of each factor on the trend component is evaluated by the Ordinary Least Square Method. The results indicate that the price elasticity of the export is low. Also, the impact of non-pricing factors such as globalization, total productivity of production factors, innovation, electronic commerce and foreign direct investment on non-oil exports were assessed. The results have shown the significant effect of all factors and the negative impact of economic freedom, openness and foreign direct investment on the implicit process export.
International Commerce
Hanane Aghasafari; Milad Aminizadeh; Alireza Karbasi
Abstract
Institutions and infrastructure as a set of social factors, rules, beliefs and infrastructure services are the key factors influencing bilateral trade between countries. So, this study investigates the effects of institutions and infrastructure on Iran’s bilateral trade with the main trading partners. ...
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Institutions and infrastructure as a set of social factors, rules, beliefs and infrastructure services are the key factors influencing bilateral trade between countries. So, this study investigates the effects of institutions and infrastructure on Iran’s bilateral trade with the main trading partners. For this purpose, gravity model, poisson pseudo maximum likelihood was developed and the analysis was based on panel data of trade volume between Iran and the trading partners over the period 2003-2016. The results implies that the interaction effect of different institutional indicators on Iran's bilateral trade with developing country partners and developed country partners are negative and significant. So that, Iran tends to trade more with less corrupt countries, higher political stability, implementing trade facilitation laws and more democracy. The positive and significant impact of the different institutional distance indicators on Iran's bilateral trade with developing country partners and developed country partners confirm that Iran tends to trade more with the partners that have stronger institutions. Moreover, the positive and significant effect associated with transport and communications infrastructure on Iran's bilateral trade with developing country partners and developed country partners indicates that the infrastructure facilitates trade between Iran and the main trading partners.
International Commerce
Matin Borghei; Teymour Mohamadi
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 45-60
Abstract
In this paper, for analysis of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import prices, a structural dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used and exchange rate is considered as an endogenous variable not exogenous. Therefor we can calculate exchange rate pass-through conditional on each shock. ...
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In this paper, for analysis of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import prices, a structural dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used and exchange rate is considered as an endogenous variable not exogenous. Therefor we can calculate exchange rate pass-through conditional on each shock. The advantage of this approach is that it shows to policy makers that ERPT conditional on each shock is different and policy maker should take the cause of the change, into account. Hence a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Iran is presented and calibrated. Then by impulse response functions, ERPT conditional on different shocks (technology, oil revenues, foreign output, money demand, foreign interest rates and monetary policy shocks) has derived. Also, a test for the effects of the changes in variance of each shock on the degree of conditional ERPT has been performed. The standard deviations of the shocks affect the scale of the impulse-response functions, but not their shape. This means that the relative magnitude ofthese responses and conditional measures of pass-through will not be altered by changes in the variance of theshocks.
International Commerce
Mohammad Mahdi Barghi Oskooee; Alireza Kazerooni; Behzad Salmani; Saber Khodaverdizadeh
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 61-78
Abstract
The trade balance is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, and the macroeconomic strategic constraints for developing countries. The main target of this paper is study the effect of savings rate on the trade balance. According to the article target we used time series data of Iranian macroeconomic ...
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The trade balance is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, and the macroeconomic strategic constraints for developing countries. The main target of this paper is study the effect of savings rate on the trade balance. According to the article target we used time series data of Iranian macroeconomic variables during 1960-2015 with application of fuzzy regression and auto regressive distributed lag approaches. The results of fuzzy regression approach show that savings rate and GDP per capita have a positive effect on the trade balance in the short term and long term. In the other hand the real effective exchange rate and degree of trade openness have a negative effect on the trade balance in long term. Also the results of auto regressive distributed lag approach show that savings rate, trade openness and GDP per capita have a positive effect on the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate has a negative effect on the trade balance. The other results are: error correction coefficient shows that 93 present of unbalanced short term adjusted to achieving long term balance. According to the results of research to reduce the trade deficit, an increase in gross domestic savings can be one of the important policy recommendations.
International Commerce
Omolbanin Jalali; Habib Ansari Samani; Madjid Hatefi Madjumerd
Volume 8, Issue 29 , December 2017, , Pages 157-174
Abstract
The aim of this study at first is to study the effective factors of FDI and then the estimation of these effects during 1983-2014. In this regard the causality relationship between FDI and political risk, GDP, trade openness index, inflation and exchange rate, has been investigated through Hsiao and ...
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The aim of this study at first is to study the effective factors of FDI and then the estimation of these effects during 1983-2014. In this regard the causality relationship between FDI and political risk, GDP, trade openness index, inflation and exchange rate, has been investigated through Hsiao and Toda-Yamamoto tests. Then using a smooth transition regression model, the effect of determinants of foreign direct investment will estimated. In addition, results show that political risk, GDP and exchange rate are statistical cause of FDI, but trade openness index and inflation have no significant effect on foreign direct investment. In addition, the nonlinearity of model was also verified. The model showed that the FDI function can be investigated in the form of a structure with a two regime with threshold value of $ 2,000 million. Political risk in both regimes has a negative effect on foreign direct investment, but with the arrival to high regime, the sensitivity will be reduced. This relationship between the GDP and FDI is opposite.
International Commerce
aso Esmailpour; Ahmad Assadzadeh; Mostafa Shokri; Hammed Zolghader
Volume 7, Issue 28 , September 2017, , Pages 99-112
Abstract
One of the main goals of developing countries is abating of stable and enduring economic growth. Therefore, recognition of effective factors on economic growth is very important. Due to special significance of effective factors on non-oil exports in trade policy making, in this study the influence ...
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One of the main goals of developing countries is abating of stable and enduring economic growth. Therefore, recognition of effective factors on economic growth is very important. Due to special significance of effective factors on non-oil exports in trade policy making, in this study the influence of different Variables such as efficacy of export insurance subsidy on non-oil exports has been studied. Because of the high power models to predict the behavior of economic systems based on fuzzy regression, fuzzy regression is used to examine the relationship between non-oil exports with export insurance subsidy and other variables in the period 1995 to 2015.The results obtained from this study show that short term and long-term export insurance subsidy have positive effect on non-oil exports of the country. According to these results and main foresighted objectives defined in future economic development document, which include reduction of dependency to oil export revenues, in order to increase non-oil exports it is suggested to use export insurance subsidy.
International Commerce
khadijeh nasrollahi; karim azarbaiejani; mohammadreza zeinolabedini
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, , Pages 39-54
Abstract
The aim of this study has been to evaluate the club convergence between Iran and its trading partners over the period 1978-2013. For this purpose, this paper has used log(t) test with the limited dependent variable. Then,by using a sequential dependent variable model, factors affecting the formation ...
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The aim of this study has been to evaluate the club convergence between Iran and its trading partners over the period 1978-2013. For this purpose, this paper has used log(t) test with the limited dependent variable. Then,by using a sequential dependent variable model, factors affecting the formation of these club has been investigated and identified. According to estimated model in the form of panel data, a convergence club income between Iran and some of its trading partners has been confirmed. The results show that there are the potential for income convergence of Iran and Belize, Algeria, Egypt, Fiji, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Kiribati, Morocco, Nicaragua, Swaziland, Thailand, Tonga, Tunisia and Vietnam countries and they can form an effective economic block, and strength their internal relationships in order to achieve higher economic growth and faster convergence.
International Commerce
Ebrahim Anvari; Ahmad Salahmanesh; Majid Sheikh Ansari; Mahvash Moradi
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, , Pages 119-132
Abstract
Investigating the effect of government corruption and financial liberalization on economic growth is a fundamental issue in recent economic literature. However, considering these two phenomena simultaneously have been ignored by researchers. This paper, empirically and theoretically, studies how negative ...
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Investigating the effect of government corruption and financial liberalization on economic growth is a fundamental issue in recent economic literature. However, considering these two phenomena simultaneously have been ignored by researchers. This paper, empirically and theoretically, studies how negative effect of corruption can be affected by financial liberalization. The results show that, by liberalizing financial account, high corrupt countries levy more taxes and therefore the negative effect of corruption on economic growth intensified. In empirical model, we include OPEC countries for the duration of 1990-2013. Estimation results by GMM method show that the negative signs of the interaction between financial liberalization and corruption imply that the partial impact of financial openness on economic growth decreases as the degree of corruption increases.
International Commerce
Mehdi Sadeghi Shahedani; Meysam Khosravi
Volume 6, Issue 23 , May 2016, , Pages 32-13
Abstract
Efficient goals and policies that can be seen through development plans are the most important economic document for an economy. Development plans are affected by theoretical bases and also Iran's development plans are not as an exception. This paper tries to grasp the theories that are affect five years ...
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Efficient goals and policies that can be seen through development plans are the most important economic document for an economy. Development plans are affected by theoretical bases and also Iran's development plans are not as an exception. This paper tries to grasp the theories that are affect five years plans of Iran. To say more about subject we will answer such questions: how can discover the theoretical base of each plan? What are differences and similarities of plans over this subject? Following the subject requires library method in the research. Results would be reported for similarities the partial effect of capitalism on this plans and differences would found on some strategic selection point and basic economic theories like growth and justice. What makes this paper different to simple research is including fifth plan and discussion on each plan and also using development paradigms and theories for its analysis.
International Commerce
Farzaneh Ahmadian Yazdi; Mostafa Salimifar; Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri
Volume 5, Issue 20 , August 2015, , Pages 30-11
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of trade liberalization and economic growth on non-oil bilateral trade balance of Iran and China over the period 1981-2012. For checking the stationarity of the variables and validity of the obtained results, the Augmented Dicky-Fuller test (ADF) and Perrone structural ...
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This paper investigates the effects of trade liberalization and economic growth on non-oil bilateral trade balance of Iran and China over the period 1981-2012. For checking the stationarity of the variables and validity of the obtained results, the Augmented Dicky-Fuller test (ADF) and Perrone structural break test is employed respectively. To estimate the coefficients of the variables, ARDL model has been used. Using the framework of Oskooee and Brooks model, the findings of this paper show that increasing trade liberalization in short run and long run causes trade deficit for Iran. It means that from the view of demand side economists, higher trade liberalization deteriorates the trade balance of the country. Also, based on the obtained results, economic growth in both short run and long run has negative effect on non-oil bilateral trade balance of Iran and China. In addition, the real exchange rate has positive effect on the trade balance of Iran. It means that depreciation of national currency improves trade balance of Iran.
Bilateral Trade
Samad Aziznejad; Fathollah Tari; Seyed Mohammad Reza Seydnourani
Volume 1, Issue 3 , January 2012, , Pages 133-99
Abstract
Import, which is the basis for significant effects on economics, is influenced by various factors that are essential to be recognized and examined. One of the issues that can influence the demand for import in each country is joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) which can, in fact, affect the demand ...
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Import, which is the basis for significant effects on economics, is influenced by various factors that are essential to be recognized and examined. One of the issues that can influence the demand for import in each country is joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) which can, in fact, affect the demand for import through strategies such as decreasing tariff rates and increasing the extent of mergers in international commerce and relative prices (domestic and foreign prices). In this regard, and considering the high proportion of capital and intermediate commodities in the total import of the country, this article evaluates the effects of Iran joining WTO on the import of capital-intermediate commodities, using Vector AutoRegressive method using the data during 1971-2008. The findings of the study reveal that at long term, the import of such commodities has had high sensitivity towards international commerce and merger in international economies and little sensitivity towards tariff rates and relative prices during the above-mentioned period. The findings of both long-term and short-term periods confirm each other. Also the impulse response function and variance decomposition analyses show that the effect of one standard error which shocks involvement in import demand of studied goods, is approached to zero in three years and integration of international trade is most effective on variations of that demand.
