s
majid karimirizi; Mohammadhadi Sobhanian; Mohammad Qezelbash
Abstract
During the last decade, the use of Islamic financial bonds in the form of issuing new bonds, converting government's non-debt debts into financial bonds, the clearing of government bond debts from the non-banking sector to the banking network and from the banking network to the central bank has increased. ...
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During the last decade, the use of Islamic financial bonds in the form of issuing new bonds, converting government's non-debt debts into financial bonds, the clearing of government bond debts from the non-banking sector to the banking network and from the banking network to the central bank has increased. Based on this, the present research analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of financing the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran in two ways, the traditional approach (non-securities) and the issuance of Islamic securities through the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of DSGE on the main economic variables including inflation, investment , employment and economic growth. For this purpose, based on past experimental studies and seasonal data of Iran's economy during the period (1990:1 – 2021:4), simulation has been done and instantaneous reaction functions of macroeconomic variables to debt shocks. Conventional and financial bonds of the government to the central bank, banking network and the non-banking sector should be reviewed. The obtained results show; Financing the government by using debt securities will generally lead to investment growth, prevent the increase in inflation compared to the method of financing through non-debt debt, and create economic growth. Also, the effects of this on employment are assessed as positive in government bond debts to the banking network and to the central bank, and negative in government bond debts to the non-banking sector.
s
Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh
Abstract
The impact of inflation uncertainty on the real sector is one of the topics of monetary economics, which leads to important effects at the macroeconomic level. Despite this, there is no consensus on how inflation uncertainty affects output in the field of theoretical and empirical studies. On the other ...
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The impact of inflation uncertainty on the real sector is one of the topics of monetary economics, which leads to important effects at the macroeconomic level. Despite this, there is no consensus on how inflation uncertainty affects output in the field of theoretical and empirical studies. On the other hand, considering the conditions of countries with natural resources rent, this relationship may be challenged. Therefore, the current research tries to provide a new insight in this field by choosing Iran's economy due to the experience of wide inflation fluctuations on the one hand and the special role of oil revenues on its various sectors. For this purposedata from 1989:2 – 2021:2 and continuous wavelet transformation were used to examine the relationship between uncertainty of inflation and output by different groups.The results showed that in the short-run horizon, the gross domestic product and its components have experienced various relationships in terms of intensity, direction and flow of causality with inflation uncertainty. In the medium and long run, the gross domestic product due to oil revenues has an inverse effect on inflation uncertainty. Based on this, it can be said that achieving one of the important goals of monetary policy is dependent on the real sector and specifically oil rent. This problem is rooted in the high concentration of oil in Iran's economy and its direct and indirect influence on liquidity, which reflects the lack of independence of the central bank.
s
Ali Rezazadeh; ali moridian; ّFatemeh havasbeigi,
Abstract
One of the most important lessons of the global financial crisis in 2008 was the importance of maintaining financial stability and curbing systematic risk. Meanwhile, most developing economies around the world are seeking to increase the inclusiveness of their financial systems. Financial inclusion is ...
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One of the most important lessons of the global financial crisis in 2008 was the importance of maintaining financial stability and curbing systematic risk. Meanwhile, most developing economies around the world are seeking to increase the inclusiveness of their financial systems. Financial inclusion is critical to inclusive growth and provides policy solutions to remove barriers that exclude people from financial markets. In this regard, the main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of financial inclusion and the size of the shadow economy on the economic growth of MENA countries during the period of 2018-2008. The results of spatial panel model estimation show that financial inclusion has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. This means that financial inclusion is an effective tool in strengthening rapid economic growth. The positive relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth shows that increasing banking penetration, availability of banking centers and geographic penetration can strengthen economic growth in the long run. Also, in the studied economies, the size of the shadow economy has a significant negative effect on economic growth, and this shows that the shadow economy is an obstacle to economic development.
s
hamzeh karimi; Saeed Karimi Potanlar; Ahmad Jafari Samimi
Abstract
considering the importance of oil shocks in Iran's economy, in this research, an attempt has been made to examine the effects of oil income shocks on the expenditure and income components of the government's general budget. in this regard, in order to consider structural instability in parameters, time-varying ...
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considering the importance of oil shocks in Iran's economy, in this research, an attempt has been made to examine the effects of oil income shocks on the expenditure and income components of the government's general budget. in this regard, in order to consider structural instability in parameters, time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) models are used. this model allows the estimated coefficients vary over time. in this research, the seasonal data in period of 1990/02-2019/01 be used. the estimation results of the models indicate the positive and short-term effects of oil income shocks on current expenditures and construction expenditures. the estimation of the second model shows the negative impact of oil shocks on tax revenues and the positive impact on other government revenues. the results of reaction functions (IRF) also show that the mentioned effects have a short duration and are reversed in the next periods and disappear quickly. also, the estimation results of the models show that the impact of oil shocks on inflation has varied over time and changed from negative to positive after the income shock of 2005.
s
amir ali farhang; Ali Younessi; Vahid Nikpey Pesyan; Amaneh lotfi
Abstract
One of the most important topics discussed in countries, especially in developing countries, is economic growth. Entrepreneurship can be one of the effective factors in increasing the rate of economic growth. Because entrepreneurs can provide the necessary resources for the growth and development of ...
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One of the most important topics discussed in countries, especially in developing countries, is economic growth. Entrepreneurship can be one of the effective factors in increasing the rate of economic growth. Because entrepreneurs can provide the necessary resources for the growth and development of production and human resources, create employment and new business and expand the range of products and services with industrial innovation. Therefore, in the current difficult situation, the need to address the entrepreneurship category and its effects on improving the performance of macroeconomic variables, especially in less developed provinces, is felt more than ever. Therefore, the current research aims to analyze the spatial effects of the spillover effect of the entrepreneurship index on economic growth in the provinces of Iran from 2013 through 2020. The results of this study, in the framework of spatial composite data and based on the estimation of a space Durbin, showed that the logarithm of the entrepreneurship index and its proximity effects have a positive effect on economic growth in the provinces of Iran. From other research results, the variables of human capital logarithm and foreign direct investment inflow logarithm have a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of the above provinces, while the unemployment rate variable harms the economic growth of the provinces. Based on the results of the research, it is recommended to increase the provincial and regional powers according to the relative advantages of the regions,
s
Mohammadghasem Rezaee; Majid Maddah; Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi
Abstract
Taxes are a policy-making tool for the economic stabilization and, on this basis; local taxes can influence provinces’ economic performance. Local taxes are taxes for which the rates and bases are determined by the local authorities. These taxes finance services to be provided for local residents. ...
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Taxes are a policy-making tool for the economic stabilization and, on this basis; local taxes can influence provinces’ economic performance. Local taxes are taxes for which the rates and bases are determined by the local authorities. These taxes finance services to be provided for local residents. Local taxes influence regional economic growth for the following main reasons: increased competition among the regions, higher economic growth, decreased shadow economy and finally, improvement of taxpayer’s behavior. Thus, this research has reviewed and empirically analyzed the effect of corporate income tax, personal income tax, property tax and consumption tax as local taxes on country provinces’ economic growth. To this end, within the framework of ECM models, a PMG methodology was employed that made use of quarterly data during March 2005- July 2015. The results of the model estimation show that, property tax and consumption tax increase regional economic growth, whereas corporate income tax and personal income tax decreases the regional economic growth. Also, revenue-neutral shift away from either corporate income or personal income tax toward property or consumption tax leads to increases the regional long- run growth. The results indicate that optimal local taxation (with property and consumption tax bases) leads to provincial economic growth. So, this study can be used as guidance for economic policy-makers.
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Leila Gholami Heidariani; Reza Ranjpour; Firoz Fallahi
Abstract
In this study, we investigate the relationship between stocks cycles and business cycles in Iran, using the spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 59). The dynamic interaction between financial cycles and business cycles is used by rolling window estimation and spillover plots. We use ...
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In this study, we investigate the relationship between stocks cycles and business cycles in Iran, using the spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 59). The dynamic interaction between financial cycles and business cycles is used by rolling window estimation and spillover plots. We use data of GDP cycles as business cycle and also data of total stock price index, the stock price index in industry and the stock price index in finance based on quarterly data during 1998Q3-2018Q1. We have investigated the relationship between business cycle and stocks cycles along with exchange rate, oil incomes and liquidity. The results show that the total spillovers index increases in during periods of economic recessions. Also, the business cycle, oil cycle and exchange rate cycle are more impressionable market and the total stock, industry stock, finance cycle and liquidity cycle are more influential market than other markets.
s
Mohamad Mehdi zare shahneh; zahra nasrollahi; hojat parsa
Abstract
Human resources are considered as one of the pillars and key elements of the growth and development of each country. In this regard, women, as half of the population of the society, play a decisive role in advancing the goals of growth and development. So, first of all, it is necessary to consider this ...
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Human resources are considered as one of the pillars and key elements of the growth and development of each country. In this regard, women, as half of the population of the society, play a decisive role in advancing the goals of growth and development. So, first of all, it is necessary to consider this part of the society in planning and policy. Second, different policies can have different effects on the quantity and quality of their performance. One aspect of this discussion is how macroeconomic policies affect women's participation in the labor market and gender gaps in employment. Therefore, in this paper, the effects of monetary, fiscal and oil shocks on macroeconomic variables such as production, employment of women and men, total employment and gender inequality in the labor market are discussed, in the framework of a DSGE model. The results indicate that all shocks (monetary, fiscal and oil shocks) increase production, employment of women and men, and total employment. These shocks increase men's employment more than women's, and as a result, gender inequality in the labor market increases.
s
Ali Jafari; Jomadoordi Gorganli Davaji; Majid Ashrafi; Arash Naderian
Abstract
Comparability is a qualitative feature that adds to the usefulness of financial and economic information. Macroeconomic variables can affect the relationship between comparability and dividend payout. Therefore, this paper examines the moderating role of macroeconomic variables in the relationship between ...
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Comparability is a qualitative feature that adds to the usefulness of financial and economic information. Macroeconomic variables can affect the relationship between comparability and dividend payout. Therefore, this paper examines the moderating role of macroeconomic variables in the relationship between comparability criteria and dividend payout policy. The sample consists of 119 active companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange for the period 2011 to 2017. To measure the comparability, three criteria of earnings comparability, operating cash flows comparability, and discretionary accruals comparability have been utilized. Multivariate linear regression model using Eviews9 software was used to test the research hypotheses. The results showed that the net income comparability had a significant negative effect on dividends payout. The effect of interest rate on the relationship between net income comparability and dividend payout has been positive and significant. Inflation had a positive and significant effect on the relationship between net income comparability and dividend payout. The official exchange rate had a significant negative impact on the relationship between net income comparability and dividend payout, and also it had a significant negative impact on the relationship between discretionary accruals comparability and dividend payout. The effect of the informal exchange rate on the relationship between net income comparability and dividend payout has been negative and significant.
s
َAmin Arabi; Hossein Marzban; Javad Moradi; Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri Sadraei Javaheri
Abstract
The main objective of this research is to determine the executive model of the policy of the requirement of the internal contribution to the program of foreign investment in large-scale projects. Since the investment decisions are heavily dependent on the production cost structure, the "cost modeling ...
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The main objective of this research is to determine the executive model of the policy of the requirement of the internal contribution to the program of foreign investment in large-scale projects. Since the investment decisions are heavily dependent on the production cost structure, the "cost modeling of systems" (SCM) method has been used to categorize and simplify the cost information in a desirable manner. Implementation of the internal commitment policy is aimed at supporting domestic production and technology transfer, and the deregulation of the entire production process. In order to support domestic production, there are other options, such as subsidy policies for domestic production and tariffs for goods and services. Therefore, in this research, the internal demand policy, in accordance with the principles and requirements governing international trade, applied through the World Trade Organization and other international organizations and institutions, is compared with other common choices. Finally, the proposed model has been developed for the requirement of internal contributions to oil and gas projects. The model has been determined for a gas refinery with a daily refueling capacity of 20 million cubic meters of gross natural gas, and the optimal share of domestic and foreign investment has been identified. In the project, the share of domestic sector is equal to 49.6% and the share of the foreign investor is 6 / 50% estimated. The welfare effects of the internal contribution requirement are also measured and described by comparing this policy with the policy of applying foreign investor's tariffs. The amount of public welfare resulting from the required internal contribution policy in the project under consideration is estimated at $ 220 million.
s
Nariman Mohammadi; Gholamali Haji; Mohamad Hassan Fotros
Abstract
In recent decades, fiscal decentralization as one of the most important factors affecting growth and improve productivity in the economy and balance of the regional more than ever is underlined by economists. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic ...
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In recent decades, fiscal decentralization as one of the most important factors affecting growth and improve productivity in the economy and balance of the regional more than ever is underlined by economists. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth in provinces of iran from a different angle and specifically based on the principal components analysis (PCA) using econometrics method of panel data in the period of 2004 -2015. The model based on the endogenous growth of this research was estimated based on Mean Group (MG), Poold Mean Group (PMG) and Fixed Effect Dynomic (FED) estimators, and a suitable pattern is determined using the Hausman test. By executing of panel co- integration tests, long- term relationships in terms of cross-sectional approach through fuly-Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Dynomic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) estimation methods has extracted and then, causality relations have investigated using the vector error correction approach (ECA). the findings of this study, based on data of 31 provinces of the country, show the positive effect of combined financial decentralization as a result of PCA technique on economic growth and the existence of a nonlinear relationship and the optimum level between combined fisical decentralization index and regional economic growth, so that this relationship with increasing combined fiscal decentralization is positive at low evels, and will be negative due to the costs of decentralization after crossing the peak point. Also, the long- term causality relation from independent variables, especially fiscal decentralization and it's squaring on production, is confirmed.
s
Mehdi Jalouli; Ahmad Sarlak; Hadi Ghafari; Mohamad Sadegh Horri
Abstract
In the present study, using a Structural macroeconometric model of econometric structure, the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth of major macroeconomic sectors in Iran during the period of 1976-2016 have been investigated. First, using the principal component analysis ...
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In the present study, using a Structural macroeconometric model of econometric structure, the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth of major macroeconomic sectors in Iran during the period of 1976-2016 have been investigated. First, using the principal component analysis method, an index for economic instability was created. In order to study the effect of this index, firstly, the data on exogenous variables were calculated using the predictive method and the ARIMA time series models, and in some cases also according to the average rate of the annual growth of that variable has been generated in several previous periods and then, with the change in each of the economic instability factors in 2018, the effect of this change on the intrinsic variables of the model (which includes the production of agricultural sectors, industries and mines, oil and gas, and services) was observed for the years 2018-2021. Any deviation in the process of moving the intrinsic variables of the pattern from the underlying trend is a result of economic instability on the variables studied. The results show that the lowest and the greatest gap (the effect of economic instability) between the underlying trend and the trend after economic instability is observed in the agricultural sector and the oil and gas sector.
s
Zahra Sharif; Masoud Nonejad; Ali Haghighat; Mehrzad Ebrahimi
Abstract
The fundamental question of this study is whether the variables that generally lead to increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time can reduce the prices level with the same intensity and during the same time period? To answer this question, according ...
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The fundamental question of this study is whether the variables that generally lead to increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time can reduce the prices level with the same intensity and during the same time period? To answer this question, according to the stylized facts and evidence of Iran’s economy, the results of the most important studies available, and the accurate official statistics, we investigate the main economic factors affecting the inflation in Iran. In this regard, using monthly time series data of economic factors (which include the liquidity, GDP, Iran's crude oil prices, and openness) over the period from November 2008 to October 2018, an error correction model based on hidden cointegration approach, CECM (Crouching Error Correction Model), has been used to differentiate between the asymmetric behaviour of variables through decomposing the variables into positive and negative components to distinguish the accurate relationships between the variables when they increase and decrease. The results of this study, while confirming the existence of the significant asymmetric relationships between the economic factors and inflation, emphasised on the incomplete pass-through of all of the factors mentioned above into the inflation rate. Furthermore, these results have confirmed the crucial role of the liquidity and real GDP in comparison to the other research variables to control the inflation rate. The results also highlighted that the period of returning the inflation rate to its long-run equilibrium would be significantly different if the policy of increase or decrease in each of the economic factors occurs; consequently, this issue should be taken into account in inflation-targeting policies.
s
Ahmad Ali Asadpour
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of uncertainty in inflation, bank finance, bank interest rates, liquidity, stock prices, price index and GDP on housing prices in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, seasonal data has been used during the period 1991 to 2013. EGARCH pattern (1,1) ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of uncertainty in inflation, bank finance, bank interest rates, liquidity, stock prices, price index and GDP on housing prices in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, seasonal data has been used during the period 1991 to 2013. EGARCH pattern (1,1) as an estimation of AR (4) residues for inflation is used as a substitute for inflation uncertainty measurement, and a short-term model and long-term relationships between research variables have been set. The results of short-term model and long-run pattern show that uncertainty regarding inflation, interest rate, liquidity, GDP and national income have a positive and significant effect on housing prices. Indeed, stock prices and housing finance have a negative and significant effect on housing prices. It is noteworthy to state that there are different sensitivities to housing prices in most variables, such as household income per capita, liquidity, and stock price index in the long term and short-term; so that, according to the theory, the elasticity of house prices relative to household income per capita, the volume of money and the stock price index in the long run is more than short-term. The results of the estimation of the error correction model indicate that in each period, about one fourth of the imbalance of dependent variable of its long-term equilibrium values over a period is moderated and eliminated in the subsequent period. In other words, if any shock or inequilibrium occurs in housing prices, it will return to equilibrium after four periods.
s
davood farhadi; hossein ali danesh; Habib Ansari Samani; Hadi keshavarz
Abstract
Over the past decades, the economies of the world have continually experienced economic fluctuations, business cycles, and cycles of boom and recession. Fiscal rules are one of the most important tools of the government with the goal of stabilizing and reducing fluctuations during the business cycle. ...
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Over the past decades, the economies of the world have continually experienced economic fluctuations, business cycles, and cycles of boom and recession. Fiscal rules are one of the most important tools of the government with the goal of stabilizing and reducing fluctuations during the business cycle. It is always the minds of many policymakers who are involved in the question of how a policy should be considered during a period of boom or recession. In fact, policy makers are confronted with the question of whether fiscal rules should be used during business cycles. In response to this question, the present study uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and modeling the National Development Fund to scenario in two modes of applying counterycyclical fiscal rule and its non-implementation. The findings of the study showed that, in the case of petty impacts, a counterycyclical fiscal rule based on oil revenues has reduced the intensity of fluctuations of macroeconomic variables compared to the absence of a fiscal rule. Also, in the case of monetary impulse, there is not a significant difference in the effectiveness of the implementation of the fiscal rules or its non-implementation.
s
Azad Khanzadi; maryam heidarian
Abstract
In macroeconomics, the Okun's Law and Verdoorn's Law are used as methods for studying the relationship between economic growth and unemployment and employment. The necessity of studying these two laws together, in a threshold econometric model and considering to regional and spatial conditions of variables, ...
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In macroeconomics, the Okun's Law and Verdoorn's Law are used as methods for studying the relationship between economic growth and unemployment and employment. The necessity of studying these two laws together, in a threshold econometric model and considering to regional and spatial conditions of variables, can have more effective results in labor market policies. Therefore, in this study, due to the importance of employment and unemployment issue in Iran, have been investigated economic growth thresholds in the Okun's and Verdoorn's Law, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression and considering to spatial and non-spatial dimensions of variables. The results of model estimation for 30 Iranian provinces of during the period of 2005-2017 show that unemployment response to changes in production growth was higher than employment, this is true not only in non-spatial state, but also in spatial state and calculation of proximity matrix in economic growth. In addition, the results in spatial state than non-spatial state with stronger and faster changes, which is evidence of regional labor markets impact and macroeconomic situation and unbalanced development in each region, which has led to overflow in other areas. Of course, these effects, with crossed of threshold and entering second regime, have led to improvement in the labor market to increase employment and reduce unemployment, but effects of economic growth more have been on reducing unemployment than employment growth.
s
hamid zolghadr; Hossein Asgharpur; Mohsen Purebadolahan; Behzad Salmani; Asadollah Farzinvash
Abstract
Banks due to their ownership structure have specific objective in granting credits. Hence, Ownership structure can be impact on economic growth by Influencing banks' lending behavior. Purposes of this study are investigating the role of bank ownership in the impact of bank credit on economic growthwith ...
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Banks due to their ownership structure have specific objective in granting credits. Hence, Ownership structure can be impact on economic growth by Influencing banks' lending behavior. Purposes of this study are investigating the role of bank ownership in the impact of bank credit on economic growthwith considering income level of provinces. This research is divided banks into state and private also divided provinces into two groups of high and low income. Econometric model of this research is estimated using panel data in 31 provinces during of 2006-2015. Descriptive analysis results showed that average of total credits each year, 21 percent by private banks and 79 percent by state-owned banks is paid. The findings of the model estimation indicate that the impact of both types of banks credit on provinces' economic growth was higher in low income levels compared to provinces with high income levels. The results of the tests conducted to measure the difference in the impact of two types of banks in each region indicated that state banks, with a significant difference compared to private banks, had a greater effect on economic growth in lower-income provinces. But the difference in the effectiveness of two types of bank credit on economic growth in provinces with high income level is not significant. Therefore, structure of bank ownership has effective role on the impact of credits on economic growth due to the income level of the regions.
s
Ali Falahati; Maryam Heidarian
Abstract
In an economy system, government activities play a fundamental role in economic growth and development of countries, but increase these activities have a positive effect on economic growth until a certain threshold and from this threshold excessive increase in government activities not only have no positive ...
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In an economy system, government activities play a fundamental role in economic growth and development of countries, but increase these activities have a positive effect on economic growth until a certain threshold and from this threshold excessive increase in government activities not only have no positive effect on economic growth, but these activities are main barrier to growth. Including of these activities, can mention the government''s capital expenditures and public debt. In this study, is tried to study the threshold effects and non-linear government investment and public debt on GDP in two separate models during of 2000-2016 using of provincial data and Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model (PSTR). The results of linearity test show that there is a nonlinear relationship between variables. Also, the inclusion of a transfer function with a threshold parameter which is representing a two-regime model, is sufficient to determine the nonlinear relationship between variables. The results show that public debt and investment in first regime have a positive effect on GDP, but by crossing of threshold and entering to second regime, severity of this effect will be increased and negative. It seems, this result is due to the crowed-out effect on private sector and increase in public debt due to rising government spending and confirms Laffer curve hypothesis.
s
Mohammad Mahdi Bargi Osgooee; Mostafa Shokri
Abstract
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the major factors affecting the economic growth and development of a country. Iran's economic condition not only steers liquidity towards non-productive activities but also doesn't have sufficient domestic capital for economic growth and propensity. Thus, absorption ...
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Foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the major factors affecting the economic growth and development of a country. Iran's economic condition not only steers liquidity towards non-productive activities but also doesn't have sufficient domestic capital for economic growth and propensity. Thus, absorption of the foreign financial funds seems to be a useful and effective way to compensate for this shortcoming. Therefore, in this paper, we discuss on the importance of the variables affecting the FDI absorption in Iran during the period 1981-2016 using fuzzy regression with emphasis on the role of income tax. The results of the research show that income tax has a small effect on Iran's FDI absorption with a negative and negligible fuzzy coefficient. Further, income tax is not considered as the main determinant factor in attracting foreign investment in Iran. Also, economic factors such as GDP, commercial openness, human capital and population have a positive effect and inflation and exchange rates have a negative effect on FDI inflows in Iran.
s
Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh; Mohammad Ali Ehsani; Mohammad Taghi Gilak Hakim Abadi
Abstract
The 2007 global financial crisis showed that financial cycles is one of the reasons for the fluctuations of macroeconomics and could create business cycles. If there is such a relationship, adopting an active policy response to smooth financial cycles seems necessary. The present study investigates the ...
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The 2007 global financial crisis showed that financial cycles is one of the reasons for the fluctuations of macroeconomics and could create business cycles. If there is such a relationship, adopting an active policy response to smooth financial cycles seems necessary. The present study investigates the dynamics of the relationship between financial cycles with business cycles and the inflation gap in Iran's economy during 1990:1 – 2016:4. To accomplish this, first, a financial condition index for Iran's economy has been created. In addition, the causality test has been conducted in the frequency domain and available frequencies have been determined to predict economic growth whit the index. Then, in order to investigate the purpose of the research and analysis in the frequency domain and time-frequency domain, the new Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform and Continuous Wavelet Transform tools are used. The results show the relationship between financial cycle and the business cycle in the short run and long run is bilateral and extremely unstable. In the medium run, the business cycle is a leading variable, but the phase difference between the two variables in the 1990s is different from those of the 2000s. In the medium run, the financial cycles have kept inflation away from its long run trend. But in the long run and after 2007, this relationship has been reversed. According to the results of the research, it is recommended that monetary policy makers, in addition to smoothing output and inflation around their long run trends, should also consider this for the financial sector so that the two objectives above can be achieved with lower error in different frequencies.
s
fatemeh monadi; Kiomars Sohaili; Somaye Azami
Abstract
One of the important macroeconomic variables is national savings. National saving can be affected by several factors, one of these factors is population age structure. Scientific and quantitative determination of the impact of population age structure on national saving is an important issue that is ...
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One of the important macroeconomic variables is national savings. National saving can be affected by several factors, one of these factors is population age structure. Scientific and quantitative determination of the impact of population age structure on national saving is an important issue that is discussed in this paper. In this study relied on Ando and Modigliani's life-cycle hypothesis, has been analyzed the effect of population age structure transitions on national saving in Iran. For this purpose, a model is proposed to explain the national saving and demographic variables included in the model and coefficients have been estimated using an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). National savings model consists of two equations, one of the equations represents the long-run equilibrium relationship and other indicates short-run dynamic. In addition, the method of error correction is used for determining the adjustment speed of dynamic model toward long run equilibrium. Annual time series data for the period 1984-2016 have been used. The findings show that the population age structure is an effective factor in formation of the national savings. Increasing the proportion of people in the age group 20 to 24 years reduces national saving. Against, increasing proportion of population aged 25 to 54 years, will increase in national savings. Most of the savings made by the group aged 35-44 years. On the other hand, the increase of population in the age group 55 years and more, again, reduces national saving.
s
HASAN ZARINEGHBAL; ahamad jafari samimi; Amir Mansour Tehranchian
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 33-54
Abstract
This article has endeavored to study in experimental survey, the effect of Central Bank Independence (CBI) on the output and inflation fluctuations in the Iranian economy, using vector Autoregressive (VAR) econometrics method. For this purpose, we started with the changes in output and inflation stability ...
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This article has endeavored to study in experimental survey, the effect of Central Bank Independence (CBI) on the output and inflation fluctuations in the Iranian economy, using vector Autoregressive (VAR) econometrics method. For this purpose, we started with the changes in output and inflation stability in bringing about good economic performance, over the period 1961-2014 years. The paper has introduced a new legal combined Central Bank Independence index, by the name of "Average (Mean) Index". According to the 40% amount of total on the base of this new index, it has been cleared that there was independence just during 1340-1361 period. The results of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) method indicated that the inflation and output variances trends were approximately inverse over this period, except in some short periods. The estimation of study model revealed the negative and significant of Central Bank Independence effect on output and inflation variances. It means an increase in Central Bank Independence will cause decreasing their fluctuations and will results more macroeconomic stability and better economic performance. According to the result of Variance Decomposition and analysis of Impulse- Response Functions, the positive impact of central bank independence on macroeconomic stability has been confirmed, but it was much more effective on the nominal sector and shrinking the inflation uncertainty than real sector and output instability.
s
Sima Eskandari Sabzi; Asadolah Farzinvash; Kambiz Hojabr Kiani; Hamid Shahrestani
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 101-116
Abstract
Economic instability affects the domestic money that economic agents are willing to hold. For example in an uncertain inflationary environment, they prefer to less demand for money and use those asset which has less risk of maintenance, such as foreign currency and foreign assets. The use of foreign ...
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Economic instability affects the domestic money that economic agents are willing to hold. For example in an uncertain inflationary environment, they prefer to less demand for money and use those asset which has less risk of maintenance, such as foreign currency and foreign assets. The use of foreign currency as a store of value is "dollarization". This study examines the impact of economic instability on the unofficial dollarization in Iran. For this purpose, we estimate the degree of dollarization by Kamin and Ericsson (2003) and El-Erian (1988) method, then obtain a composite macroeconomic instability index with the consumer price index, exchange rate, stock of international reserves, interest rate and budget deficit, then examine by using a vector auto regression model over the period of 1979 to 2014. The results indicate that economic instability affects dollarization positively. The impulse response function shows that a one-standard error shock in instability increases dollarization at first, and gradually reduced. The results of variance decomposition also show that in long term instability index can explain fluctuation of the dollarization.
s
Nader Mehregan; Ezatollah Abbasian; Saeed Isazadeh; ebrahim faraji
Volume 8, Issue 29 , December 2017, , Pages 17-30
Abstract
New economies undergo significant short-run variations in aggregate output and employment. Understanding the causes of aggregate fluctuations is a central goal of macroeconomics. RBC models consider real shocks as the main cause of business cycles. Within RBC models, the purposes of this study are estimating ...
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New economies undergo significant short-run variations in aggregate output and employment. Understanding the causes of aggregate fluctuations is a central goal of macroeconomics. RBC models consider real shocks as the main cause of business cycles. Within RBC models, the purposes of this study are estimating the real shocks of Iran’s economy and investigating its effects on the economy’s fluctuations. For these purposes, a method that is introduced by McCallum (1989) has been applied during the years 1959-2014. According to the results presented in this study, the highest amount of persistency of the real shocks is related to the oil sector then to the agricultural sector. The variability of oil sector shocks is much more than the variability of agriculture sector shocks. A periodic manner with parallel and durable fluctuations can be seen in the shocks. Negative effects are more intense than positive effects. It seems, Iran’s economy undergoes five real business cycles in 56-year of the study. Also, the production fluctuations due to real shocks are a hump-shape process. These fluctuations peak after 1 or 2 years, then decline.
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Mohammad Jafari
Volume 8, Issue 29 , December 2017, , Pages 61-76
Abstract
Due to the important role of economic globalization in income inequality of countries, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the non-linear impact of economic globalization on income inequality in Iran during 1979-2014. For this purpose, is used the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The ...
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Due to the important role of economic globalization in income inequality of countries, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the non-linear impact of economic globalization on income inequality in Iran during 1979-2014. For this purpose, is used the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The estimated Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model supports a nonlinear threshold behavior in the relationship between economic globalization and income inequality in the country in a two regime structures with positive effect and a threshold level of about 26/15%. so that increases the intensity of this positive impact with crossing threshold level and entering the second regime.
