Abolfazl Mahmoodi; Aboozar Parhizkari
Volume 5, 17(3) , December 2015, , Pages 40-25
Abstract
In this study, climate change impact on product yield and farmer's gross profit of Qazvin plain were studied. In this regard, first the trend of variables of temperature and precipitation changes during 1991-2011 were reviewed. Then, using regression analysis effect of temperature and precipitation variables ...
Read More
In this study, climate change impact on product yield and farmer's gross profit of Qazvin plain were studied. In this regard, first the trend of variables of temperature and precipitation changes during 1991-2011 were reviewed. Then, using regression analysis effect of temperature and precipitation variables on yield and acreage of wheat, barley, corn, canola, tomatoes, beets and alfalfa was investigated. Then, by entering the results of regression analysis in the positive mathematical programming model, the scenario of one degree increase in temperature and one mm decrease of rainfall on crop yield were analyzed. Results of regression analysis showed that during the study period, the increase in temperature and the decrease in precipitation. Also, results of regression analysis showed that changes in temperature and precipitation in Qazvin plain has a significant effect on products yield. Results of PMP model showed that with one degree increase in temperature and one mm decrease of rainfall, the yield of barley, corn, beet and alfalfa respectively 15, 24, 13 and 17 percent increase and the yield of wheat, tomatoes and canola respectively 29, 20 and 23 percent decrease. Also, farmer's gross profit compared to the base year 10/5 percent increases. In the end, due to prematurity of climate change in regional planning, to increase agricultural production in the Qazvin plain it was proposed that the first it should be considered the performance improve operating in per unit area (ha) and development the under cultivation of crops such as corn, beet and alfalfa be placed at the next priority.
