OPEC
Abo Alghasem AsnaAshari; Kamran Nadri; Asghar Abolhasani; Nader Mehregan; Mohammad Reza Babaei
Volume 6, Issue 22 , January 2016, , Pages 102-85
Abstract
Like most of oil exporting countries, Iran’s economy is exposed to the government’s great share of economic activites, complicated monetary and economic policies and a meager activity in production section.Thus a shock in oil price has a significant effect on domestic production, inflation ...
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Like most of oil exporting countries, Iran’s economy is exposed to the government’s great share of economic activites, complicated monetary and economic policies and a meager activity in production section.Thus a shock in oil price has a significant effect on domestic production, inflation and money. On the proposed model of Qu and Perron (2007), the present study Investigates structural shocks of Iran’s economy stemed from exogenous oil price considering the variables of production, inflation and money as independent and endogenous variables during the period from March 1961 to February 2012. Accordingly, five structural shocks have been identified in September 1973, July 1979, May 1990, July 1994 and May 2006. The most considerable effect of oil price on production, inflation and money growth were in the first, first and fifth regimes respectively. Moreover, the longest period of oil price effects on production, inflation and money growth were in forth, second and fifth regimes respectively.
Ali Asadi; Seyed Meysam Esmaeili
Volume 3, Issue 12 , November 2013, , Pages 104-89
Abstract
In recent decades, the issues related to human capital and its impact on economic growth have been important. In this regard, the main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of human development on economic growth in the period of 1971 -2012 in Iran. Therefore, according to the purpose of ...
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In recent decades, the issues related to human capital and its impact on economic growth have been important. In this regard, the main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of human development on economic growth in the period of 1971 -2012 in Iran. Therefore, according to the purpose of this research, firstly we calculated Iran’s human development index based on the UN definition and analyzedthe impact of human development index on economic growth by using Markov-Switching model. The main model of this study is determined by using the model of Lucas and Line (2004). To estimate the nonlinear relationship between human development and economic growth based on the likelihood function, MSI model with two regimes (prosperity or recession) was chosen from the different states of the Markov - Switching (MS) model. Changing the relationship between these two variables over time, is one of the most important characteristics of Markov – Switching method. Based on the results, human development has a positive impact in recession periods and negative impact in prosperity on economic growth in Iran. Also, stability of the first regime (recession) is greater than the second (prosperity).
Sohrab Delangizan; Mohammad Sharif Karimi; Zeinab Khalvandi
Volume 4, Issue 15 , August 2014, , Pages 104-87
Abstract
Financial corruption affects on economy’s health via different channels which the most important channel is distortions in the allocation of resources. On the other hand, the level of knowledge-based economy also can affect on behaviour of factors of production. An important question is whether ...
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Financial corruption affects on economy’s health via different channels which the most important channel is distortions in the allocation of resources. On the other hand, the level of knowledge-based economy also can affect on behaviour of factors of production. An important question is whether the level of knowledge-based economy can affect the relationship between corruption and economic growth? This study investigates the effect of financial corruption on economic growth for 138 countries over the period 2000 - 2011 by using the consolidated corruption perception indicator, the level of knowledge based economy indicator and economic growth and a dynamic panel model which called Generalized method of moments (GMM). The results of classification of countries show that, in the groups with high knowledge-based economy indicator, control of financial corruption has positive impact on economic growth but in the groups with moderate knowledge-based economy indicator, control of corruption, has negative impact on economic growth. Also, the results show that in the first group of countries, stability of corruption control policies has a positive impact on economic growth but in the second group of countries, it has a negative effect.
Reza Najarzadeh; Morteza Ezzati; Mohammad Soleimani
Volume 4, Issue 16 , November 2014, , Pages 104-89
Abstract
The measurement of social capital is a major challenge in the social capital research. For this purpose researchers employ different methods and techniques. One of these methods is the Resource Generator Technique. In this article we use this technique to measure the elite’s social capital living ...
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The measurement of social capital is a major challenge in the social capital research. For this purpose researchers employ different methods and techniques. One of these methods is the Resource Generator Technique. In this article we use this technique to measure the elite’s social capital living in Tehran. The emphasize of this technique is on the measurement of individual access to social resources. The level of social capital (access of every elite to social capital resource) was measured using three indices by distributing questionnaires among Tehran’s elites. The results show that among the elites population, access to social resource among males, married persons, people with masters’ degrees and engineering bachelors is more than others. In order to show one of the Resource Generator Technique benefits, the effect of some variables such as age, gender, education and marriage status on social capital was estimated.
Fathollah Tari; Mohammad Shirijian; Mohsen Mehrara; Hossein Amiri
Volume 3, Issue 10 , June 2013, , Pages 106-93
Abstract
Identifying the factors that contribute to sustained economic growth of countries is the main concerns of economic researchers. The present paper employs a Bayesian econometrics approach based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method to investigate the effect of public and private health expenditure ...
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Identifying the factors that contribute to sustained economic growth of countries is the main concerns of economic researchers. The present paper employs a Bayesian econometrics approach based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method to investigate the effect of public and private health expenditure on economic growth in developing economies. The empirical findings show that public health expenditure positively and private health expenditure negatively affect on the long-term economic growth of developing countries. Also, hospital beds do have a positive important role in explaining long-term economic growth.
Mena Countries Group
Mahboobeh Shakeri; Ahmad Jafari Samimi; Zahra Karimi Moughari
Volume 6, Issue 21 , November 2015, , Pages 106-93
Abstract
The subject of this paper is measuring institutional quality and evaluatingits relationship with per capita economic growth in 20 MENA countries. For estimating growth models, panel data method was used during (2002-2010). For measuring institutional quality at first six indices of good governance have ...
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The subject of this paper is measuring institutional quality and evaluatingits relationship with per capita economic growth in 20 MENA countries. For estimating growth models, panel data method was used during (2002-2010). For measuring institutional quality at first six indices of good governance have been used in six growth models. The results have shown that only regulatory quality have positive and significant relation with economic growth. Whereas the coefficients of other institutional variables including control of corruption and political stability are negative and the others including rule of law, governance effectiveness and voice and accountability are positive but insignificant. Then another model was estimated by using good governance index which was derived from combining six upper indices by using principle component analysis (PCA). The results showed positive relationship but significant at the 0.10 percent level. In the final analysis a new institutional index is derived by combining three institutional variables which had positive coefficient into the one composite index by using PCA. New index has bigger positive coefficient and significant at the 0.01 percent level rather than its sub measures (regulatory quality, voice and accountability, rule of law) and alsothan good governance index.
Arshia Faraji Tabrizi; Kambiz Hojabre Kiani; Abbas Memarnejad; Farhad Gaffari
Abstract
The exchange rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, and how it affects other economic variables, including GDP, is one of the most important challenges in macroeconomics, especially in the last few decades, industrialized and developing countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate ...
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The exchange rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, and how it affects other economic variables, including GDP, is one of the most important challenges in macroeconomics, especially in the last few decades, industrialized and developing countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the GDP of selected countries by emphasizing the role of exchange rates with the ARDL-PMG approach. The results indicate that in developed countries and developing countries in the long run the exchange rate Real has a negative and significant effect on GDP. On the other hand, the variables of physical capital accumulation, government spending, the degree of openness of the economy and liquidity have a positive effect on GDP. In this regard, the variable of physical capital accumulation has had the highest positive impact on GDP in both developing and developed countries. At the same time, the negative effect of exchange rates on GDP in developing countries is greater than in developed countries. Therefore, according to the results of this study, economic risks in developing countries are higher than developed countries.
Dynamic Panel Data
Abbas Mirzaei; Reza Esfanjari Kenari; Abolfazl Mahmoodi; Mehdi Shabanzadeh
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, , Pages 107-118
Abstract
One of the major concerns for the future of human is living conditions on Earth. Environmental degradation by humans has caused to climate change in addition to vast reduction of natural resources. Recognition of environmental problems and factors is the first step in maintaining desirable biological ...
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One of the major concerns for the future of human is living conditions on Earth. Environmental degradation by humans has caused to climate change in addition to vast reduction of natural resources. Recognition of environmental problems and factors is the first step in maintaining desirable biological conditions. Accordingly, in present study, was investigated the effect of shadow economy on environmental pressures and also the role of political and administrative corruption level in this regard. For this purpose, the pressure on nature was measured by sum of energy, mineral, net forest depletions and carbon dioxide damage. Also, panel data of 15 MENA countries from 1999 to 2013 were used to test this relationship. The result showed that relationship between the shadow economy and the environmental pressure is positive and significant. As, a 1% increase in the size of shadow economy increases the pressure on nature to 3.19%. Also, the result showed that the relationship between the size of shadow economy and the pressure on nature are dependent on the levels of countries corruption, so that increase in the corruption level increases the effect of shadow economy on environmental pressures. Therefore, production in the shadow economy of countries causes failure to comply environmental regulations by firms and increase of environmental pressures.
Gholamreza Zamanian; Mohammad Hasan Fotros; Elham Rezaei
Volume 5, Issue 17 , December 2014, , Pages 108-91
Abstract
Research and development (R&D) has been condsidered as the most important method for a rapid advancement of technology and manufacturing competitiveness and innovation. This study aims to assess R&D spillovers on the total productivity factors (TFP) of Iranian manufacturing industries in the ...
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Research and development (R&D) has been condsidered as the most important method for a rapid advancement of technology and manufacturing competitiveness and innovation. This study aims to assess R&D spillovers on the total productivity factors (TFP) of Iranian manufacturing industries in the period 2000-2008. This study employing two-stage GMM method uses statistical data of domestic R&D accumulation of industries in nineteen code of the two-digit ISIC, foreign R&D and imports of fifteen trading partners of Iran to measure the effect of R&D spillovers on the TFP of Iranian manufacturing industries. Results indicate that the interaction between human capital and foreign R&D accumulation, the interaction between import and foreign R&D accumulation, effects of external R&D accumulation and internal R&D have most positive impact on total factor productivity of Iranian manufacturing industries respectively. Internal expenditures on R&D in the chosen period have failed to provide new products and services and imperove competitiveness, technology and increasing TFP growth.
Economic Growth
Behzad Salmani; Hossein Panahi; Robab Mohammadi Khaneghahi
Volume 5, Issue 20 , August 2015, , Pages 108-99
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of health indicators (life expectancy and mortality rate) on per capita income. to do so, a panel data of 93 middle income countries over the period 1980-2011 is used. Panel data regression models including fixed effects, random effects and ...
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The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of health indicators (life expectancy and mortality rate) on per capita income. to do so, a panel data of 93 middle income countries over the period 1980-2011 is used. Panel data regression models including fixed effects, random effects and generalized method of moments (GMM) used to determine the effect of health indicators on per capita income. The results showed that the relationship between health indicators and per capita income is not monotonic and follows an U -shaped relationship. Since all of the countries passed turning point of U - shaped curve, one can say that improving health indicators in these countries significantly increases per capita income.
s
Mohammad Mahdi Bargi Osgooee; Mostafa Shokri
Abstract
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the major factors affecting the economic growth and development of a country. Iran's economic condition not only steers liquidity towards non-productive activities but also doesn't have sufficient domestic capital for economic growth and propensity. Thus, absorption ...
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Foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the major factors affecting the economic growth and development of a country. Iran's economic condition not only steers liquidity towards non-productive activities but also doesn't have sufficient domestic capital for economic growth and propensity. Thus, absorption of the foreign financial funds seems to be a useful and effective way to compensate for this shortcoming. Therefore, in this paper, we discuss on the importance of the variables affecting the FDI absorption in Iran during the period 1981-2016 using fuzzy regression with emphasis on the role of income tax. The results of the research show that income tax has a small effect on Iran's FDI absorption with a negative and negligible fuzzy coefficient. Further, income tax is not considered as the main determinant factor in attracting foreign investment in Iran. Also, economic factors such as GDP, commercial openness, human capital and population have a positive effect and inflation and exchange rates have a negative effect on FDI inflows in Iran.
Economic Growth
Ahmad Chehreghani; Mansour ZaraNejhad
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of Value Added Tax (VAT) on Iran's economic growth. For this purpose, Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) has been used. Data are derived from the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran in 2011, prepared by the Parliament Research Center in ...
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of Value Added Tax (VAT) on Iran's economic growth. For this purpose, Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) has been used. Data are derived from the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran in 2011, prepared by the Parliament Research Center in 2015, which is the latest SAM of Iran. Policy analysis has been carried out in the form of nine scenarios: the VAT with the rates applied in Iran (3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 9%), and the applicable rates (10%, 15% and 20%). In all scenarios, the VAT rate in agriculture sectore is considered zero. The results indicate that VAT has positive impact on Iran's economic growth.
بازار سرمایه
Mahboubeh Jafari
Abstract
Using Markov Switching model, this paper studies the nonlinear effect of oil price volatility on investment in Iran as an oil-rich country for the period 1984:1-2015:4. More specifically, it examines whether the oil price volatility has asymmetric effect on investment. To approach this goal, volatility ...
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Using Markov Switching model, this paper studies the nonlinear effect of oil price volatility on investment in Iran as an oil-rich country for the period 1984:1-2015:4. More specifically, it examines whether the oil price volatility has asymmetric effect on investment. To approach this goal, volatility of OPEC oil price is estimated by Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model.The results of Markov-switching model with FTP approach indicate that the effects of oil shocks on investment behavior are separable into two regimes. In other words, the impacts of oil shocks on investment in Iran economy over the booms and recessions are asymmetric. Moreover, our finding shows sanctions imposed by the US against Iran affect investment behavior negatively. We also find that 2008 financial crisis doesn’t affect investment decision. Furthermore, we find out that an improvement in the institutional quality enhances the investment demand. Our findings might have important policy implications for government in Iran. It also provide essential information for companies.
Alireza Pourfaraj; Adeleh Khaleghian
Volume 4, Issue 14 , May 2014, , Pages 112-93
Abstract
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has a key role in making universal political and economic decisions regarding petroleum. Therefore, it seems highly important to assess the OPEC member’s degree of concentration and its monopoly. This research, aims to assess and ...
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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has a key role in making universal political and economic decisions regarding petroleum. Therefore, it seems highly important to assess the OPEC member’s degree of concentration and its monopoly. This research, aims to assess and classify the concentration of petroleum export in the OPEC countries during the 1997-2011 period by the Herfindahl- Hirschman index method. Subsequently the impact of oil export concentration on economic growth of the OPEC member countries is assessed via the panel data pattern and the fixed effect method. The research model has been estimated in two conditions. Results of the estimation show that in the second condition there is a meaningful and positive relationship between oil export concentration and economic growth rate.
Samad Hekmati Farid; Ahmad Ezzati Shoorgoli; Reza Ezzati; Ali Dehghani
Volume 5, Issue 18 , March 2015, , Pages 112-95
Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between control of corruption and globalization (with various aspects) on economic growth in countries with high per capita income, middle per capita income, and low per capita income over the period (2002-2010) using panel data from113 different countries. According ...
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This paper examines the relationship between control of corruption and globalization (with various aspects) on economic growth in countries with high per capita income, middle per capita income, and low per capita income over the period (2002-2010) using panel data from113 different countries. According to the results of the various models, there is an inverted U relationship between control of corruption and economic growth. Moreover, the relationship between economic globalization and economic growth in countries with low per capita income is negative and significant. Also, social globalization in these countries has a negative impact on economic growth. However, overall index of globalization and political globalization has a positive impact on economic growth in these countries. Furthermore, in countries with high per capita income and middle per capita income, the impact of the three indicators of globalization (economic, social and political) and the overall index of globalization on economic growth is positive and significant.
Economic Growth
Mohammad Sharif Karimi; Marayam Haidarian; Masomeh Dorbash
Abstract
Establishing security is one of the important pillars of economic growth and the most important economic impact of security in the phenomenon of investment and economic growth is observed. The establishment of security in society is influenced by several factors, among which the institutions in the society ...
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Establishing security is one of the important pillars of economic growth and the most important economic impact of security in the phenomenon of investment and economic growth is observed. The establishment of security in society is influenced by several factors, among which the institutions in the society and government are the most important of these factors. In both internal and external conflicts, each of them, in turn, will undermine security and, as a result, will undermine the economic growth of a country. Therefore, in this research, we tried to study the effect of internal and external conflicts on economic growth in Middle East countries during the period 1996-2018. By examining the nature and effect of conflicts on economic growth, first, the effect of external conflict on internal conflict in the form of a panel probe model, then in two separate models of the impact of internal and external disputes on the quality of institutions and economic integration indexes are examined. Finally, in a generalized method of moments system the simultaneous influence of internal and external conflicts, quality of institutions indicators and economic integration on economic growth have been investigated. The results of the model estimation show the positive effects of external conflicts on the internal conflicts and then the negative effects of internal and external conflicts on the quality of institutions and economic integration. In the final model, the increase in domestic and foreign conflicts has led to a decline in Middle East economic growth. Of course, the negative effects of foreign conflicts have been more than internal conflicts in the economic growth model.
yaghoub andayesh; Hasan Farzmand; Fatemeh Hamidi
Abstract
the development of education in Iran has not led to the development and increase of economic growth. In contrast, Singapore has been able to achieve high economic growth and development based on the development of education. The purpose of this study is to compare Iran and Singapore in the links between ...
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the development of education in Iran has not led to the development and increase of economic growth. In contrast, Singapore has been able to achieve high economic growth and development based on the development of education. The purpose of this study is to compare Iran and Singapore in the links between education and the whole economy and economic sectors. To examine the links between education and economic sectors and to determine its position among other sectors, the backward, forward and the total linkage are used and is examined in the framework of the Special Vector Approach. For this purpose, the Input-Output of 1390 Iran and 2011 Singapore, which have 31 sectors, has been used.The results show that the education backward linkage in Singapore is 45% higher than in Iran. On the other hand, the education forward linkage for Singapore is 135% higher than Iran, and educational services in Singapore are more supply-oriented than demand-oriented. Also, the total education linkage for Singapore is 86% higher than Iran and it shows the high impact of the education sector in Singapore compared to Iran. In terms of ranking linkages, the education sector has a relatively low ranking among the economic sectors in Iran. Thus, among 31 economic activities, this sector is ranked 28th in the backward linkage, 30th in the forward linkage and 31st in the total linkage. For Singapore, on the other hand, it ranks 30th in the backward linkage, 3th in the forward linkage and 18th in the total linkage.
Farhad Khodadad Kashi; Mohamad Nabi Shahiki Tash; Samaneh Nooraniazad
Volume 5, Issue 19 , June 2015, , Pages 114-95
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between market structure and economic growth in iran. Using Lopez - Azzam (2002) Approach, the extent of endogenous markup in different markets was estimated. Then the relationship between markup and economic growth was investigated by baranova ...
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The main purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between market structure and economic growth in iran. Using Lopez - Azzam (2002) Approach, the extent of endogenous markup in different markets was estimated. Then the relationship between markup and economic growth was investigated by baranova (2013) model. In this paper we also examined structural and behavioral aspects of 131, 4-digit industry over the 1995-2011 periods. These aspects include markt power as structural variable and conjectural variation as behavioral variable. In addition we sought to identify the impacts of markup on economic growth. The results of this study indicate that based on conjectural variation, firms cooperate in 91 percent of industries. On the other hand, Lerner index and markup in 94.2 percent of industries were higher than 0.1 percent and 1.001 respectively. Our findingsalso indicate that there is a negative association between endogenous markup and economic growth. According to the results of this study, low level of competition in industries led to limited growth in Iran.
Economic Growth
Mohsen Mehrara; Sadeq Rezaei Bargoshadi
Volume 6, Issue 23 , May 2016, , Pages 114-89
Abstract
This paper identifies determinants of economic growth in Iran, by using averaging methods and annual time series data from 1974 to 2012. The results indicate that ratio of oil revenue toGDPis the most important variable affecting economic growth. Also the second and third effective variables on growth ...
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This paper identifies determinants of economic growth in Iran, by using averaging methods and annual time series data from 1974 to 2012. The results indicate that ratio of oil revenue toGDPis the most important variable affecting economic growth. Also the second and third effective variables on growth are respectively ratio of imported capital and intermediate goods toGDPand labor force which lead to an increase in growth. Endogenous growth factors which are the factors contributing to formation of human capital, not possess a large role in growth process. Investments, especially government investment affects contrary to were expected. In fact, low quality, and productivity of investments and poor allocation reduced importance of investment’s quantity. The nature of Iran’s economy has not endogenous and dynamic features and predominantly, growth has been made by injecting of exogenous sources. Emphasis on formal and informal educational orientation in the quality of human capital instead of increasing in quantity of education is recommended.
Alireza Borhanipour; Gholamreza Geraeinejad; Alireza Daghighi asli; Manijeh Hadinejad
Abstract
The main aim of this paper is to investigate the threshold effects of good governance index on economic growth for upper middle income countries and presence of other variables, including education expenditures, gross capital formation, inflation rate and trade openness over the period 1996-2018. For ...
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The main aim of this paper is to investigate the threshold effects of good governance index on economic growth for upper middle income countries and presence of other variables, including education expenditures, gross capital formation, inflation rate and trade openness over the period 1996-2018. For this purpose, the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model has been utilized for model estimation. The estimation results of model reject the linearity hypothesis, and estimate a continuous transition function with two regimes that gives a threshold at good governance of -0.94 with speed of transition 1.74 for investigated countries. Moreover the study results indicate good governance, trade openness, education expenditures and gross capital formation have a positive impact on economic growth that their impacts are increased in the values above a threshold which is calculated for good governance. The other results indicate that the influencing coefficient of the inflation rate variable is negative and significant in two regimes. Though, its impact is declined in second regime. Hence, improving the quality of governance and efficient institutions promote the economic growth and development in the selected countries. Moreover, the transparency, government effectiveness and control of corruption indices have positive and significant impacts on the real GDP growth in selected countries.
Economic Growth
Mohammad Reza Kohansal; Hamideh Hamidehpour
Abstract
In most previous studies concerning investigation of factors affecting economic growth, spatial dependencies have been ignored which would result in biased and inconsistent estimates. At first, economic growth of a country is influenced by its own geographical, internal conditions and capabilities then ...
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In most previous studies concerning investigation of factors affecting economic growth, spatial dependencies have been ignored which would result in biased and inconsistent estimates. At first, economic growth of a country is influenced by its own geographical, internal conditions and capabilities then affected by the spillover effects of neighboring countries and its trading partners, which these influences by others on growth of a country are called spatial effects and spatial dependencies. Therefore, this study examines the factors affecting economic growth by using the spatial dynamic panel method in both developed countries (members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and developing countries (members of the Economic Cooperation Organization) during the 2001-2015 period. The innovation of current research is to use dynamic matrix derived from bilateral trade of countries, which varies over time. By estimating spatial growth model, positive spillover effects from one country to its trading partners have been confirmed in both developed and developing countries. By comparing the results, only the physical capital factor has contributed to improving the growth of developing countries, while in developed countries, in addition to physical capital, two factors including human capital and trade have provided further growth. In order to capture positive effects of trade on advancing economic growth of ECO countries, it has been suggested to consider political and institutional changes in economic development programs.
Shirin Arbabian; Batol Rafat; Maryam Ashrafian Pour
Volume 4, Issue 13 , January 2014, , Pages 116-97
Abstract
Tourism as a highest earning industry in the world can play an important role in the economic growth of countries. On the other hand, economic growth can also lead to the development of tourism facilities and infrastructure and finally to tourism development. Therefore, in this study the relationship ...
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Tourism as a highest earning industry in the world can play an important role in the economic growth of countries. On the other hand, economic growth can also lead to the development of tourism facilities and infrastructure and finally to tourism development. Therefore, in this study the relationship between international tourism and economic growth in the OIC member states is discussed. In this study -to evaluate the impact of tourism on economic growth and the impact of economic growth on tourism- using panel data econometric framework, tourism and economic growth models in the period 1995-2011 for 21 OIC member countries are analysed. Results represent a significant and positive impact of international tourism, foreign direct investment, the degree of economic openness and economic freedom on economic growth and also economic growth due to increase of infrastructures and facilities leads to tourism development and increase the per capita income of any of the Islamic countries which lead to increased demand for tourism among members. Also the expansion of trade and lower prices affect tourism development.
Hamid Sepehrdoust; Mohsen Tartar; Razieh Davarikish
Abstract
Export is one of the determinants of business development and sustainable economic growth, which in the modern economy is strongly influenced by superior technology and economic complexity index. Since scientific productivity provides the conditions for the acquisition of superior technology, therefore, ...
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Export is one of the determinants of business development and sustainable economic growth, which in the modern economy is strongly influenced by superior technology and economic complexity index. Since scientific productivity provides the conditions for the acquisition of superior technology, therefore, to the extent that export development can be tailored to the export-oriented characteristics of non-renewable sources in developing countries, the challenge is to what extent has the growth of scientific productivity been able to affect the export of high-tech in developing countries? The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the scientific productivity index on high-tech exports of G15 developing countries during 2000-2018; using Panel Data Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) method. The results show that in a 10-yearly period, generating a shock in scientific productivity has a positive effect on high technology exports and over time the impact of increasing scientific productivity on high technology exports increases. Moreover, a positive shock in financial risk, initially leads to an ever-increasing export of high technology exports but the effects are not permanent and diminishes after about 4 years. The economic risk also has a positive effect on increasing high technology exports, while the impact of political risk is negligible on high technology exports in the long and short term. The results of variance decomposition also show that the variables with high technology export, economic risk and scientific productivity have the most impact on the high technology export respectively. Financial risk has little effect and political risk has the least impact on high-tech exports.
s
Mehdi Jalouli; Ahmad Sarlak; Hadi Ghafari; Mohamad Sadegh Horri
Abstract
In the present study, using a Structural macroeconometric model of econometric structure, the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth of major macroeconomic sectors in Iran during the period of 1976-2016 have been investigated. First, using the principal component analysis ...
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In the present study, using a Structural macroeconometric model of econometric structure, the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth of major macroeconomic sectors in Iran during the period of 1976-2016 have been investigated. First, using the principal component analysis method, an index for economic instability was created. In order to study the effect of this index, firstly, the data on exogenous variables were calculated using the predictive method and the ARIMA time series models, and in some cases also according to the average rate of the annual growth of that variable has been generated in several previous periods and then, with the change in each of the economic instability factors in 2018, the effect of this change on the intrinsic variables of the model (which includes the production of agricultural sectors, industries and mines, oil and gas, and services) was observed for the years 2018-2021. Any deviation in the process of moving the intrinsic variables of the pattern from the underlying trend is a result of economic instability on the variables studied. The results show that the lowest and the greatest gap (the effect of economic instability) between the underlying trend and the trend after economic instability is observed in the agricultural sector and the oil and gas sector.
Economic Growth
Mahboobeh Farahati
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of revenue-neutral change in the tax structure on economic growth in Iran using data for the period of 1361-1395. To this end, an empirical model has been proposed to analyze the effect of substituting different tax items for each other on economic ...
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The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of revenue-neutral change in the tax structure on economic growth in Iran using data for the period of 1361-1395. To this end, an empirical model has been proposed to analyze the effect of substituting different tax items for each other on economic growth in such a way that the total tax revenue remains constant. The results of cointegration analysis based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach show that a revenue-neutral transfer of indirect taxes to income tax or wealth tax increases economic growth in the long run. However, a revenue-neutral transfer of indirect taxes to corporate taxes reduces economic growth in the long run. Also, among direct taxes, a revenue-neutral transfer of corporate taxes to income tax or wealth tax as well as a revenue-neutral transfer of income tax to wealth tax promote economic growth in the long run. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the highest and lowest increase in economic growth correspond to the substitution of wealth tax for corporate taxes and of income tax for indirect taxes, respectively. The results of this study have important policy implications for tax structure reform in Iran's economy.
